"01B" - Slowly Intesifying and drifting N-W into Bay.

Analysis show that the Cyclone has drifted N-W into Bay during past 6 hrs.

Present location is 5.8N , 92.4E.

Pressure has remained the same from Noon, at around 996 mb

Winds gusts reaching up to 65 Kmph.

11:30pm, Satellite IR shows a good core and a good circulation around it. The cyclone is expected to attain a named cyclone "Mahasen" strength in next 18 hrs.

JTWC warning at 8:30pm IST

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TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1009 NM SOUTH OF 
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN 
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 101130Z SSMIS IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO THE 
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A DEFINED LLCC. DESPITE THE RECENT 
IMPROVEMENT, DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AT 30 KNOTS; HOWEVER, A 
100244Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 100544Z OCEANSAT IMAGE BOTH SHOW 35-KNOT 
WINDS NEAR THE CORE AND SUPPORT THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 
KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, A 10/12Z SHIP REPORT, LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM NORTH 
OF THE CENTER, INDICATES SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 29 KNOTS WITH 
SLP NEAR 1002 MB, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. THE 
LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A POINT SOURCE, WHICH IS PRODUCING NEAR-RADIAL 
OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS MODERATE TO 
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS). TC 01B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD 
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
(STR) POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BAY OF BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC 
01B IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN 
APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED 
OVER PAKISTAN AND THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER TAU 60, THE SYSTEM 
WILL RE-CURVE INTO MYANMAR AS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES 
INDIA AND THE WESTERN BAY OF BENGAL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF, 
WHICH INDICATES RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IN THE EXTENDED 
TAUS, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST 
IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET ECMWF 
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A 
PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO DECREASING VWS AND IMPROVING 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 10 FEET.

JTWC tracking and forecasted path:

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Latest NOGAPS and COLA models agree to North Myanmar coast and S-E Bangladesh coast landfall as a weak Cyclone on evening of 15-May.