Monday, November 19, 2012

"03B" is now a DRY Depression

"03B" is now a DRY Depression and have crawled S-W during the past 12hrs.
Now weakening fast.!
10am latest satellite IR shows the circulation with almost NO convective activity. Very rare to see this over Bay and that too this time of year !

JTWC warning at 8:30am IST
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POSITION NEAR 15.2N 86.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
VOID OF CONVECTION AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA NOW SHOWS WIND 
SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. AN 182123Z AMSU 
IMAGE SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND IS BEGINNING TO 
SHOW SOME ELONGATION OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 
03B REMAINS IN A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. DYNAMIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SYSTEM IN THIS HIGH VWS ENVIRONMENT, WHICH 
ALONG WITH THE IMMINENT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE 
THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT 
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED 
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
190000Z IS 12 FEET.

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