"93W" - now a cyclone alert is issued

JTWC has issued a Cyclone formation alert for "93W".
11:30am, Latest satellite pic of "93W"...

JTWC warning at 9am IST
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FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 86.1E TO 8.8N 80.8E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
280200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N
84.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 
86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A 
CLOUD-COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280007Z SSMIS 
IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST 
CONVECTION TO THE EAST. EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALED 25-30 
KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH WEAKER (10-15 KNOT) 
WINDS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS  
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE DEVELOPS 
THIS SYSTEM TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS AS THE STRONGER WINDS BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASING 
ORGANIZATION AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.

NOGAPS model suggestion
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NOGAPS model suggests that "93W" will develop as a Depression and cross into Central,S-E Tamilnadu coast touching N.Srilanka on 30-Oct.

Showers seen along Central Tamilnadu coast and even into N.Tamilnadu coast.
11:30am, Sharp showers seen over S,S-E of Chennai city.