Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Normal Monsoon Forecast: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Wild Card

As India waits with bated breath to find out how the monsoon will pan out, India Meteorological Department (IMD) disappoints. It is too early now to give a forecast. We are right now studying all parameters and models for a comprehensive forecast for the entire season," announced L.S. Rathore, Director-General of the IMD. The IMD will issue its first forecast for the crucial rains only in the last week of April.

Meanwhile the Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and many international climate agencies have already published their early predictions. Joining this band is a couple of early forecasts by members of the community of independent weather bloggers. 

The predominant opinion is this season's monsoon would be below average. The IITM models NCEP-CFC disagrees by forecasting an above normal monsoon. The two forecasts of the community of independent weather bloggers suggest a middle of the road outlook - a normal-normal monsoon. We examine why.

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