At present "98B" is slowly crawling N-W.
Latest COLA GFS model has come up with a new path prediction for "98B" .
The system is expected to move N-W for next 12hrs and then start drifting S-W and end up near Chennai, S.Andhra coast on 21/22-Nov.
And IMD warning at 8pm was somewhat based on this model.
Here's the IMD warning at 8pm...
The depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved west-nothwestwards, intensified into a deep
depression and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 17th November 2012 over eastcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 16.00N and longitude 89.00E, about 1000 km east-northeast of Chennai, 650 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 550 km southeast of Paradip. The system would intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move slowly west-northwestwards during next 12 hrs. It would move west/west-southwestwards towards south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coasts during subsequent 72 hrs.
Opinion #1 --> This S-W drift may not be the case, because the 200hpa Jet is from S-W or S above 13th parallel. This will steer the system North, N-W or N-E.
Opinion #2 --> COLA model expects a Anti-cyclone is expected to move in from Myanmar into N-E Bay during next 3 days.. so this may make the present system "98B" to drift S-W.
Latest COLA GFS model has come up with a new path prediction for "98B" .
The system is expected to move N-W for next 12hrs and then start drifting S-W and end up near Chennai, S.Andhra coast on 21/22-Nov.
Here's the IMD warning at 8pm...
The depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved west-nothwestwards, intensified into a deep
depression and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 17th November 2012 over eastcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 16.00N and longitude 89.00E, about 1000 km east-northeast of Chennai, 650 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 550 km southeast of Paradip. The system would intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move slowly west-northwestwards during next 12 hrs. It would move west/west-southwestwards towards south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coasts during subsequent 72 hrs.
Opinion #1 --> This S-W drift may not be the case, because the 200hpa Jet is from S-W or S above 13th parallel. This will steer the system North, N-W or N-E.
Opinion #2 --> COLA model expects a Anti-cyclone is expected to move in from Myanmar into N-E Bay during next 3 days.. so this may make the present system "98B" to drift S-W.
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