"98B" - Moving N-W and Intensifying. Now almost a Depression.
Latest satellite shot reveals that the system is Intensifying.
Bad news is "NO rain for most of Tamilnadu till 20-Nov. Some showers may open up over S.Tamilnadu during next 2 days."
Latest satellite shot reveals that the system is Intensifying.
Bad news is "NO rain for most of Tamilnadu till 20-Nov. Some showers may open up over S.Tamilnadu during next 2 days."
JTWC report at 6am IST
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 90.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 90.1E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 162204Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDERNEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS WITH EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Both NOGAPS & COLA models suggests a Westerly movement from here towards central,N-E Andhra coast during next 2 days.
The system may not intensify beyond Depression.
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