"98B" is now "03B" - Deep Depression now! Moving S-W

"98B" is now "03B" - Deep Depression now! Moving S-W
As expected by GFS models the system is now moving S-W. Still a deep depression.
Pressure at 996mb.
Winds upto 60km/hr.
1:30pm, latest satellite.

Latest position plot on map.
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IMD warning at 1pm.
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The deep depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of 

today 18

th

 November 2012 near latitude 16.0

0

N and longitude 88.0

0

E, about 900 km east-northeast of Chennai, 550

km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 500 km southeast of Paradip. The system would intensify further into a 

cyclonic storm and move slowly westwards during next 12 hrs and west-southwestwards towards south Andhra

Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coasts during subsequent 72 hrs.

JTWC warning at 2:30pm
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TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH OF 
KOLKATA, INDIA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS THE DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
SHOWING A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELONGATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. 
ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS THE DRY AIR ALONG THE 
WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP TOWARD THE CENTER OF 
THE SYSTEM. THE DRY AIR HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY ISOLATED THE LLCC FROM 
THE INFLOW OF THE WARMER MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN 
QUADRANT. THIS WEAKENING OBSERVED IN THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY DUE IN 
GREAT PART TO THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
TC 03B IS LOCATED UNDER THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS 
IN THE DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF A SUBTROPICAL JET MAX TO THE NORTHEAST, 
WHICH IS PROVIDING AMPLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE VERY FAVORABLE 
OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC WITHIN THE 
NEXT 36 HOURS WILL CAUSE A WEAK INTENSIFICATION, BUT WILL QUICKLY BE 
OVERCOME BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD 
ALIGNMENT INDICATING A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. TC 03B IS 
CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT AS A 
STR LOCATED OVER INDIA BUILDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE 
QUICKLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION 
OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THE SYSTEM BEING IN A POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT 
LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 14 FEET.