"98B" - Crawling N-W and Cyclone alert !

"98B" - Crawling N-W and Cyclone alert !
Pressure dropping just below 1000mb.
Wind upto 50kmph
7pm, Satellite IR shows good core and heavy convective activity.

Here's the latest location plot on map.

JTWC warning at 1:30pm IST
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 
90.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 89.2E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTH 
OF KOLKATA, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) SHOWS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 170423Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A BAND OF 20 
TO 25 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. MSI SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER WINDS ARE 
LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE AXIS OF 
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS PROVIDING AMPLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (05 TO 10 KNOTS). ANIMATED TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING BAND OF DRY COOL AIR 
ATTEMPTING TO WRAP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY INTO THE SYSTEM, 
HOWEVER THE CENTRAL WARM CORE REMAINS ISOLATED FROM THIS BAND AND IS 
BEING SUPPORTED BY THE WARM TROPICAL AIR MASS LOCATED IN THE 
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 
FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.  MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE 
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

Latest NOGAPS model suggests a westerly movement from here but the system is expected to weaken drastically and make landfall as LOW over N-E Andhra, S.Orissa coast on 19-Nov.

Importantly Tamilnadu to stay DRY & COLD till 21-Nov. Some isolated showers possible before 21-Nov for S.Tamilnadu.