Sunday, November 18, 2012

"03B" - Becoming DRY and Weakening now, crawling S-W

"03B" - Becoming DRY and Weakening now.
A dry Deep Depression, crawling S-W and showing signs of weakening.
9pm Satellite IR shows convection along E,S-E and N-E.. almost nothing over the rest of the system.
Medium level clouding seen over S-W periphery may reach Chennai, S.Andhra coast by early morning tomorrow.

Latest position plot on map.

JTWC warning at 8:30pm
----------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS NEARLY BEEN 
COMPLETELY SHEARED FROM THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). AN OLDER 180628Z OSCAT PASS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT 
REGION OF 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE 
LLCC. THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT INDICATED MUCH LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE 
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND HAS 
STEADILY DIMINISHED THE INFLOW OF THE WARMER MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS 
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03B 
IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. OVER THE 
PAST FEW HOURS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO 
MODERATELY HIGH LEVELS (20 TO 30 KNOTS) WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 
OBSERVED SHEARING OF THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. 
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW INDICATE A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING TREND 
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS 
BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OSCAT PASS AND THE OBSERVED 
STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC IN MSI. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STEADY OVER 
THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK, EXCLUDING WBAR 
WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWARD TRACK. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN 
VWS, THE FORECASTED INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS TO A STEADY STATE FORECAST, WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. BASED 
ON CONSISTENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED 
TO THE SOUTHWEST, THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 14 FEET.


1 comment:

  1. Anonymous2:23 PM

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