"03B" - Becoming DRY and Weakening now.
A dry Deep Depression, crawling S-W and showing signs of weakening.
9pm Satellite IR shows convection along E,S-E and N-E.. almost nothing over the rest of the system.
Medium level clouding seen over S-W periphery may reach Chennai, S.Andhra coast by early morning tomorrow.
Latest position plot on map.
JTWC warning at 8:30pm
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A dry Deep Depression, crawling S-W and showing signs of weakening.
9pm Satellite IR shows convection along E,S-E and N-E.. almost nothing over the rest of the system.
Medium level clouding seen over S-W periphery may reach Chennai, S.Andhra coast by early morning tomorrow.
Latest position plot on map.
JTWC warning at 8:30pm
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TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS NEARLY BEEN COMPLETELY SHEARED FROM THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN OLDER 180628Z OSCAT PASS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT REGION OF 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT INDICATED MUCH LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND HAS STEADILY DIMINISHED THE INFLOW OF THE WARMER MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03B IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO MODERATELY HIGH LEVELS (20 TO 30 KNOTS) WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OBSERVED SHEARING OF THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW INDICATE A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OSCAT PASS AND THE OBSERVED STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC IN MSI. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STEADY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK, EXCLUDING WBAR WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWARD TRACK. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN VWS, THE FORECASTED INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO A STEADY STATE FORECAST, WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. BASED ON CONSISTENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED TO THE SOUTHWEST, THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 14 FEET.
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