Cold wave moving in for Pakistan, N,N-W,W,Central India

Cold wave is moving in in the rear of Western Disturbance. 

In Pakistan, Islamabad was 4c on Friday morning, Hyderabad saw 12c and Karachi 14c. Coldest in the plains were Nawabshah and Sibbi at 1c.
Karachi could fall to 12c and Hyderabad to 10c this weekend. Lowest  may touch  0c  in the plains of Balochistan/Sindh.

Expecting the cold to move into India from Friday night. Next 2 nights (from Friday) we could see lows of around 8c in New Delhi and 7c in NCR. Amritsar could drop to 4/5c and Chandigarh 8c.
Many places in Punjab and Rajasthan will be around 6/8c. However the coolest places in Punjab (Adampur) or Rajasthan could touch 3/4c by Sunday night (Monday morning).

Maharashtra and finally Gujarat will see a drop in night temperatures from Saturday morning temperatures. Gujarat nights will drop by 2/3c from current levels.Surat will finally drop to below 15c this weekend.
Next 2 nights, expecting Vidharbha towns to be around 11c, including Nagpur.

Mumbai will be at 20c (Colaba) and 16c (Scruz) on Saturday morning. Sunday morning will be 1c lower.
Pune and Nasik may touch 7/8c next 2 nights. Aurangabad will slide to 11c..

Moving East, cold could take Kolkata by Sunday morning, with the expected night temperature on Sunday could be 12c. On Friday morning, it was already 3c below normal at 14c in Kolkata. Days would be around 26c with North winds.

Kathmandu can see the minimum going down to below 3c, around 2/3c from Sunday night.

Taken from http://rajesh26.blogspot.in/ 

#chennai - will have another cold night with a low of 20 deg C expected around morning. From Monday morning the low temp. will move above 21

"99B" - Still elongated North-South and with less convective activity.

"99B" - Still elongated North-South and with less convective activity.
8pm, Satellite IR shows less convective activity over North, West quadrant of the circulation. 
Signs of COLD Dry wind prevailing over N,W Bay is affecting the convective activity and further strengthening.
A weak circulation can also be seen over S-E corner of Arabian sea.

It's expected, around tomorrow evening the system will consolidate and move further West. Not expected to become as a Cyclone.  At the same time the cold dry winds from N-W India entering into N,W Bay will weaken or stop.

Due to the Dry winds present along N,W,W-central Bay the convective activity of the system will be concentrated over its N-E,S,E quadrant only till 2 /3-Dec.

Latest NOGAPS predicts LESS rainfall for central coast, Interior Tamilnadu from this system. 

But GFS model suggests good rain for central, N.Tamilnadu coast.. and it'll start from 3-Dec.

This weekend's outlook put up on blog...colder conditions expected.....system as a WML may move west...
http://rajesh26.blogspot.com

W.D over Kashmir has cleared off in a jiffy .. And NO W.D expected till 4 / 5-Dec.

If the Bay low survives and moves west .. showers expected to start along central,N.Tamilnadu coast from 3 / 4-Dec.. Till then COLD mornings

@dsanjeevkumar #chennai - records a low temp. of 19.5 deg C today morning.

"99B" - an elongated LOW pressure system now.

"99B" - is an elongated LOW pressure system now.
In next 2 days, it's expected to consolidate while moving west and may not develop into into a Cyclone.
Latest analysis by NOGAPS model suggests an elongated LOW extending from N-N-E to South along 90 E Longitude. But COLA analysis plots the circulation just North of 10th parallel. 

JTWC report as of 5:30am IST
------------------------------------------------------

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5N 90.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
292104Z  AMSU-B PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF
HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN DRIER AIR PRESENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN BAY OF BENGAL IN THE DAYS AHEAD, LIMITING THE TIME
WINDOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

NOGAPS suggests a Depression over S-Central Bay on 3-Dec and will move towards N.Tamilnadu coast.

COLA model also suggests a Depression over S-Central Bay on 3-Dec and expects to move towards central Tamilnadu coast.

RT @aknarendranath: Business Line : Industry & Economy / Agri-biz : US agency sees ‘moderate’ chance for a Bay storm http://t.co/jCnWW8ji

"99B" - A fresh LOW over S-S-E Bay

A fresh LOW over S-S-E Bay.
Pressure is around 1004mb
Present location is marked here..

8am, Latest satellite IR shows heavy convective activity.

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Gurgaon 8.55pm, Cloud formation in the eve, and it is raining now... due to W.D

#chennai - Temp. now 9:20pm is at 26 deg C and going down... Another 20 deg C morning on cards.

Showers for Entire Tamilnadu coast, #chennai is expected to start again from 2/3-Dec..!

Present W.D Rain & Snow will clear-off from Kashmir, Himachal by tomorrow morning ... http://ow.ly/i/1blm4 

At 11:30am, Thai met. has plotted 2 circulation over S-E and S-S-E Bay ... this may be a one system with elongation.. http://ow.ly/i/1blj9 

And NOGAPS analysis also plots the circulation over S-S-E Bay and bit elongated towards North-East.. http://ow.ly/i/1blkm 

Season's first snowfall shuts Srinagar-Leh highway http://t.co/kvTdeU6V 

Anti-cyclone over Maharastra at 850mb heights still persists. it's expected to move N-N-E into Madhyapradesh in 2 days  http://ow.ly/i/1biYl 

Lucknow records 7.1 deg C, a coldest November day in 15 years... http://ow.ly/fFxHt 

12pm, W.D is in full swing over most of Kashmir and it's slowly moving East... Cloudy over Punjab & Himachal.. http://ow.ly/i/1bijF 

#chennai - Today morning records a low temp. of 20.8 Deg C... 2 or more cold mornings ahead!

As of 5:30am today, the Circulation over S-E Bay has drifted slightly to West and having a N-S elongation...ow.ly/i/1bieA 

COLA now expects this elongated circulation will move towards Tamilnadu and reach by 2/3-Dec ... http://ow.ly/i/1bigQ 

COLA even expects a follow-up or secondary circulation to pop over S-S-E Bay around 2/3-Dec, and this is also expected to move West. !

But NOGAPS continues to predict a D.Depression to form over S-Central Bay on 1-Dec and track West towards Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/1bihT 

Kashmir :: "weather may hit surface, air communication in next 24 hours" ... http://ow.ly/fE3vV 

7:30pm, No good convective activity seen over S-E Bay circulation.... Cloudy for S.Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/1b5vc

Going to be cloudy night for N,central Punjab, Entire Kashmir (with rain / snow) and into Himachal ... http://ow.ly/i/1b5vc

Night temp. over N,N-W,N-central India will go down again after 30-Nov, after this present W.D ... http://ow.ly/i/1b5oY

#chennai , most of N.Tamilnadu to have another Cold & Dry night and morning .. Chennai temp. now (8pm) is 26.5 deg C and goin down.

Almost NO rain possible for entire Tamilnadu, #chennai till 1/2-Dec. Night temp. will go down over most of N,N-E Tamilnadu till that.

W.D has started affecting most of Kashmir.. Heavy rain / snow expected during next 36hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/1b1Cb

W.D will give some rain / snow for Himachal and Uttarakand as well in next 48hrs ! 

@yashpalsalecha #chennai - temp. at 12:50pm is 29.5 °C.. will go down again after 3:30pm.

COLA model now suggests that the present circulation will become eleongated from North to South during next 2 days ..

And suggests a strong circulation will pop from this over S-S-E Bay on 1-Dec... this circulation is expected to track West from 2-Dec.

NOGAPS still maintains the same forecast for Bay.. now it shows as a Cyclone hitting central,N.Tamilnadu on 3/4-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/1b1gQ 

Here's the COLA model for S-central Bay on 3-Dec.. a Depression .. http://ow.ly/i/1b1hx 

Today the strong circulation is over S.Andaman Islands .. http://ow.ly/i/1b1cT

And today the central Maharastra Anti-cyclone has slightly drifted W-S-W.. and now along N.Karnataka .. http://ow.ly/i/1b1cT

This Anti-cyclone is expected to move North into Madhyapradesh after 30-Nov... this will be good for upcoming S-E Bay LOW.

#chennai - COLD & Dry again .. Nungambakkam records a low of 20.6 deg C today!

7:30pm, Satellite IR shows almost NO rain over entire India .. showers seen over Gulf Mannar .. http://ow.ly/i/1aP4a

Showers may creep into S.Tamilnadu coast from Gulf Mannar around early hours / morning of 28-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/1aP5Z

From tomorrow, showers / snow forecast only for Kashmir, Himachal and even for N.Punjab.. And NO rain for Peninsula.

Latest Sea surface temperature analysis suggests that its around 27 degC over S-W,West Bay.. this may have an effect on Bay LOW.

Here's the latest Sea Surface Temperature (SST) analysis ... http://ow.ly/i/1aONt

Note that a minimum SST temp. of 26.5 degC is required to sustain a Cyclone over Sea.

Central Maharastra Ant-cyclone is strong, sweeping dry winds from N-W India into N,W,central Bay .. http://ow.ly/i/1aOdI

IMD GFS expects the circulation over S-E Bay to move N-W into Bay and vanish over central Bay around 2-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/1aOfI

But NOGAPS still persists with a D.Depression formation and movement towards Tamilnadu coast by 2-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/1aOht

Whichever way the LOW moves in next 3 days.. most of Tamilnadu, #chennai will be DRY till 30-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/1aOES 

Today the expected circulation has entered into Andaman seas.. http://ow.ly/i/1aN5s

Present circulation over S-E Bay extends upto upper levels .. http://ow.ly/i/1aN9I 

W.D is nearing Kashmir and N.Pakistan .. will reach W,S-W Kashmir by mid-morning of 28-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/1aN3F

During next 2 days, rain or snow forecast for Kashmir and Himachal due to W.D .. http://ow.ly/i/1aN80 

#chennai - 4pm, having a dry day with medium high cloud cover. No sunlight for most of the day today. Mild breeze from N-N-E. Temp. now 29 C

A Low is likely to form in the Eastern Bay, East of the Andaman Islands, by the 28th of November. Initially, on 29th, it will strengthen a bit, and move Westwards, and cover the Bay Islands.
I see some hindrance in the further westward track. As of today, the SST around the Islands is 30-31c. The SST progressively decreases as we move west. And, the SST, as we reach the Southern India coast is 28c and around 27c in the NE Indian coastline. That, would deter the further westwards track of the system beyond 93E. 
In fact, there is a 40% chance, that the system could even move Northwards along the Myanamar coast.
Let me stress, that is the synoptic situation today, and my track estimate is based on this scenario.

More in Vagaries...

Night temp for N,N-W,N-central India will be a bit higher from tomorrow due to the upcoming W.D .. It'll be normal again from 29/30-Nov.

Almost NO rain forecast for entire peninsula from 28-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/1axTN

A moderate W.D will reach W,S-W Kashmir by tomorrow evening .. and expected to persist with Rain/Snow for 2 days.. http://ow.ly/i/1axWG 

COLA suggests that Maharastra Anti-cyclone will persist till 30-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/1axM8

COLA even predicts that the anti-cyclone will make the entire peninsula DRY from 28-Nov .. http://ow.ly/i/1axM8 

More showers expected for S,S-E Tamilnadu tonight and before tomorrow late evening ... http://ow.ly/i/1axHP 

5pm, Showers slowly creeping into S.Tamilnadu again from Gulf Mannar ... http://ow.ly/i/1awlB 

A circulation is entering into S-E corner bay at this time ... http://ow.ly/i/1auiu

IMD suggests that the circulation will move North into E.Bay and vanish along Myanmar coast on 2-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/1aujC

But NOGAPS still persists with a Tamilnadu coast landfall as a Depression on 2-Dec ... http://ow.ly/i/1auk9   

12:30pm, Showers seen over Gulf Mannar and seen pushing into S.tip Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/1aucP 

By 27-Nov, evening the next moderate W.D will reach W,N-W Kashmir .. http://ow.ly/i/1akRd 

Latest COLA model suggests that upcoming circulation over Bay will move N-W into Bay from S-E corner Bay on 1-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/1akMI

But NOGAPS maintains a westerly movement towards Tamilnadu coast by 2-Dec... http://ow.ly/i/1akN0 

@ntshamz2010 >> #chennai - will be Hot & Humid for next 2 days with 1 or 2 moderate showers. Nothing much to expect from this easterlies !

Central Maharastra Anti-cyclone is expected to persist till 29-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/1akLE 

On Monday & Tuesday, some showers are expected over S-central Tamilnadu as well... http://ow.ly/i/1akKX 

11:30am, Easterlies is affecting central and S-E coast & S.Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/1akIx

Today, Easterlies wind is strong upto N.Tamilnadu coast. but moisture is pushed south as expected by the Anti-cyclone. http://ow.ly/i/1akJa

#chennai and other zones in N.Tamilnadu coast will get 1 or 2 showers from this system in next 36hrs.

Most of the rain will be over S,S-E Tamilnadu during next 2 days!

Showers also possible for Chennai and along N.Tamilnadu coast after 6 or 7am

Sharp showers will reach central, S-E coast, S.Tamilnadu in next 2 hrs!

By morning the showers will reach central, S-E Tamilnadu coast ... http://ow.ly/i/1afuq 

Northeast monsoon unpredictable: Met ... http://ow.ly/fxzWO 

RT @techproin: Rain n Coimbatore wears off, paves way to a beautiful cool evng weathr.. no signs of rain..@weatherofindia 

Showers nearing central Tamilnadu coast

3pm, Showers due to easterlies are nearing central Tamilnadu coast

Scattered showers for S.Tamilnadu & S.Kerala to continue till 26 / 27-Nov.

Next moderate W.D will reach W.Kashmir by 27-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/1adPy 

Join our Google Groups -- Discuss or Start your own topics related to "India - Environment, Climate & Weather" here .. http://ow.ly/fxvri 

RT @gparayil: Unexpected rain at IPMWHOCC #kozhikode #kerala http://t.co/dKBzHmh9  (2:29pm)

RT @saifarash: heavy rain...!!! Very cool  #Valillapuzha #Areekode #Malappuram #Kerala #Weather (3:29pm)

RT @thariqkhurshid: Alone in the rain! #perinthalmanna #Kerala @kasland http://t.co/x86UVszp 

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By 26-Nov, S-E corner bay will push in a strong circulation .. and it's expected to move West.. http://ow.ly/i/1ad3Z

Both NOGAPS & COLA model suggests a Depression over S-central Bay by 1-Dec and moving West .. http://ow.ly/i/1ad4w .. http://ow.ly/i/1ad4M 

@pramodumani >> Trivandrum - afternoon, showers will go down and mild drizzles may persist till evening.

#chennai - 1:50pm, having a Deep blue Sky, sign of New weather front moving in.. minimal LOW cloud formations around. Hot & Humid.

#chennai - Upper air current is from N-E and has mellowed down. Meaning N-E monsoon current at present is weak.. expected to pickup tomorrow

Easterlies is expected to reach central,S-E Tamilnadu coast by tonight or early hrs of Sunday.. Heavy rain ahead.. http://ow.ly/i/1acZm

Due to the strong anti-cyclone over central Maharastra.. the easterlies is expected to be pushed south.. http://ow.ly/i/1acZL

Upcoming easterlies is expected to give rain for Central, S-E coast & S.Tamilnadu .. during next 2/3 days... http://ow.ly/i/1ad05

From the easterlies, less rain forecast for N.coast Tamilnadu, #chennai during next 2/3 days !!

Till 8:30am today, Heavy rainfall amounts.. Chengalpattu (N-E.Tamilnadu) = 14cm, Tuticorin (S.Tamilnadu) = 10cm.

On 23-Nov... HOT Maharastra .. highest maximum temperature of 38.0°C
was recorded at Akola (Maharashtra)

12:30pm, Satellite IR shows showers still persisting over S.Tamilnadu, S.Kerala and heavy rain over Lakshadweep islands http://ow.ly/i/1acWo

12:30pm, Easterlies is nearing central Tamilnadu coast... will it spread all over Tamilnadu coast (or) only for South? http://ow.ly/i/1acWo

RT @aash_tvm: It is raining here in #Trivandrum since early morning, without break. #kerala @weatherofindia (11:54am)

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 12.55pm; After yesterday's downpour, today it is overcast sky, wet and windy.

RT @anandvnarayanan: @weatherofindia Blazing Sun in Chennai - feels like an early summer (10:22am)

9:30am, Satellite IR shot reveals Heavy rain over S.Tamilnadu and upcoming easterlies over S-central Bay.. http://ow.ly/i/1ac5R 

RT @kthirumani: @weatherofindia Heavy raining at tuticorin. (9:33am)

RT @techproin: @weatherofindia picture of Coimbatore rly station with a cloudy blanket. Exciting. http://t.co/AjX0OxyO (9:22am)

RT @rshivaag: @weatherofindia with few mins interval raining heavily in tuticorin (8:39am)

RT @rshivaag: @weatherofindia rain continuing from 0500hrs - tuticorin, S.Tamilnadu

Nazareth, S.Tamilnadu- 6:45am it is raining heavily for the last 40 min.  

Upcoming Easterlies is now over S-Central Bay, heavy convective activity seen! Will it reach to entire Tamilnadu coast?

RT @rshivaag: Tuticorin rain  lasted only 15mins from 0315hrs. thunder sounds and lightening existing around but rain stopped

RT @TechProIn:  heavy rains n CBE close 2 9 PM. Dunno hw wet s chn..hpng fr gud rain so dat I don't wait n queue bfr a water tanker

3:30pm, lots of showers has popped up over entire Tamilnadu, S,S-W.Karnataka and over Kerala .. http://ow.ly/i/19Zoj 

Global temperatures were fifth highest on record for Ocotber .. http://ow.ly/fw19N 

Present W.D over Kashmir, Himachal & Uttarakand will move away in another 24hrs.

Another moderate W.D is expected to reach Kashmir by evening of 27-Nov.

A strong circulation will move into S-E corner Bay on 26-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/19Y1n 

Both COLA & NOGAPS model expect the anti-cyclone over Maharastra to persist beyond 27-Nov.. this will have an effect on upcoming S-E bay LOW

For next 4hrs.. NO rain in sight for N,central.coast Tamilnadu.. cloudy spell to continue. Showers continuing even now over N,N-E Tamilnadu.

NOGAPS suggests that a wave of easterlies is expected to reach N,central,S-E Tamilnadu coast by tomorrow and more rain ahead for these zones

Here's the NOGAPS model suggesting Easterlies for N,central Tamilnadu coast from tomorrow.. http://ow.ly/i/19XSx

Rainfall from upcoming easterlies may get affected (or) pushed South by the present central Maharastra Anti-cyclone.. http://ow.ly/i/19XVu

COLA suggests that next easterlies will be pushed South to S.Tamilnadu from tomorrow due to the strengthening of Ant-cyclone over Maharastra

COLA even suggests, from tomorrow rain will clear from most of Tamilnadu and will be over S.Tamilnadu & S.Kerala.. http://ow.ly/i/19XWS 

RT @satishkg: @weatherofindia indiranagar, KR puram. #Bangalore .. Just started raining. (1:31pm)

During next 24hrs.. showers are expected over N,N-W Tamilnadu, S,central Karnataka .. http://ow.ly/i/19XPX

Showers are expected upto W.Karnataka & Goa too during next 36hrs.

Showers are expected for S.Tamilnadu & S.Kerala for next 2 / 3 days.

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 1.00pm, Dark clouds hovering around, it appears it may rain soon. 

12pm, Showers continue over N, central & S-E coast of Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/19XEq 

Heavy rain all around Chennai !

From yesterday (22-Nov) morning till today 3am.. Heavy rain witnessed ALL around chennai except for city & immediate suburbs .. 

Here is the Rainfall figure for Chennai city.

Chennai - Nungambakkam = 0.7 mm

Chennai - Airport = 3.8 mm

Rainfall over N-E.Tamilnadu & S.Andhra due to "03B" till 8:30am of 23-Nov-2012

TAMIL NADU:

 Pallipattu (Tiruvallur Dist) 6, Thiruvalangadu (Tiruvallur Dist) 4, Kancheepuram, Maduranthagam, Uthiramerur and  Kalpakkam (all Kancheepuram Dist),  Arakonam and Melalathur (both Vellore Dist) and   Muthupet (Tiruvarur Dist)  3 each, Vellore (Vellore Dist), Pamban (Ramanathapuram Dist) and  Chengalpattu (Kancheepuram Dist) 2 each and  R.k.pet and  Tiruttani (both Tiruvallur Dist), Gudiyatham, Vaniaymbadi and  Kaveripakkam (all Vellore Dist),  Kelambakkam (Kancheepuram Dist), Thiruthuraipoondi (Tiruvarur Dist), Tindivanam (Villupuram Dist) and  Vandavasi (Tiruvannamalai Dist) 1 cm each.

ANDHRA PRADESH:

 Tirupati   Airport  (dist Chittoor) 14, Tada (dist Nellore), Perumallapalli(a) and  Puttur (both dist Chittoor) 7 each, Tirupati(a) (dist Chittoor) and  Rajampet (dist Cuddapah) 6 each, Pakala (dist Chittoor) 5, Srikalahasthi and  Satyavedu (both dist Chittoor), Rayachoti (dist Cuddapah), Sullurpet and  Vinjamur (both dist Nellore) and  Ongole (dist Prakasam)  3 each, Venkatagiri Town (dist Nellore) 2 and  Udayagiri and  Nellore (both dist Nellore), Chittoor and  Kalakada (both dist Chittoor) 1 cm each.

RT @kmathan: @weatherofindia it's been persistently raining in Chengalpattu from last night.

Chennai - 8am, early hrs to till now lots of heavy rain are around city, less rain witnessed in city and nearby suburbs.

RT @akaasi: Light drizzles in Palladam, Tamilnadu @weatherofindia 9:51pm

Southern Region 3 days forecast: The Easterly wave, with an UAC embedded in it has now started pushing inland, taking the Tamil Nadu route. It will penetrate rather quickly into interior TN and precipitate modertate rainfall in the state. Effects of the UAC moving in, and dissipating, will also be felt in N.I. and S.I. Karnataka, including Bangalore, from Friday.
Hyderabad can recieve light showers on Friday. Rainfall "spill over" effect may be felt in Goa and adjoining extreme South Maharashtra on Saturday.

 More regions forecast read vagaries.

"03B" - kind of cyclone system in Nov-1992

The tropical disturbance ,that became TC09B was fwst identified on the 011800Z November

Significant Tropical Weather Ad~isory by JTWC as a broad area of convection in the Bay of Bengal.

As the tropical disturbance tracked north-northwestward, its convection increased in amount and organization.

JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert at 0221002, and the first warning at

0300002. Intensification continued until the tropical cyclone stalled on 5 November. With increasing

wind sheer aloft over the cyclone, a weakening trend set in on 6 November which continued until

TC09B dissipated over water two days later. The final warning was issued by JTWC at 0718002.

1999 - Orissa Super Cyclone

29-Oct-1999, Cyclone "05B" - Orissa Super Cyclone
History ... 
1. The storm surge was 26 feet (8 meters) struck the coast of Orissa, traveling up to 20 km inland
2. 17,110 km² of crops were destroyed
3. Approximately 275,000 homes were destroyed
4. A total of 9,803 people officially died from the storm, with 40 others still missing
5. The number of livestock that perished in the cyclone amounted to 406,000

For more visit ...
1999 - Orissa Super Cyclone
1999: Super-cyclone wreaks havoc in India

Diary of the super cyclone in Orissa

KILLER CYCLONE

"03B" - Moving inland as a low level circulation.

Confirmed - "03B" - Moving inland as a strong low level circulation. 
6pm, Heavy rain seen along W,S-W and W-N-W of Chennai.
More showers expected over S.Andhra, Chennai and N.coast Tamilnadu during next 24hrs.

4pm, Heavy rain seen just E-N-E of #Chennai , moving towards coast, Isolated rain also over S.Kerala, central Tamilnadu http://ow.ly/i/19LBs 

RT @js_miranda: @weatherofindia heavy rain now in Ramapuram and Porur, #chennai  (4:21pm)

#chennai - 4:35pm, Pallavaram zone just had a good sharp shower for around 10 min.

#chennai - Strong showers seen over S.Andhra around 70km N-N-W from city, Heavy rain approaching coast from N-E.. http://ow.ly/i/19LcN 

RT @saisowsen: @weatherofindia There was drizzle at #Pallikaranai, #Chennai (3:08pm)

Today a strong Anti-Cyclone has established over central Maharastra .. and this is expected to persist even beyond 27-Nov.

Anti-cyclone over Maharastra will push strong winds into S.Andhra, N.Tamilnadu... this'll reduce the easterlies effect in these zones.

This is the Anti-cyclone and How it'll push winds into S.Andhra, N.Tamilnadu thereby pushing Easterlies to South.. http://ow.ly/i/19Kp9

If the Central Maharastra Anti-cyclone persists beyond 27-Nov.. then it'll have an affect on upcoming S-E Bay circulation as well !

1pm, W.D is in effect over Kashmir, Himachal and Uttarakand.. Cloudy over N.Punjab and N.Haryana.. http://ow.ly/i/19Kj5

The present W.D will give Rain / Snow for Kashmir & Himachal till 24/25-Nov.

Next strong W.D is expected to reach Kashmir on evening of 26-Nov.!

"03B" - Alive as a strong circulation and drifted S-S-W

"03B" - Alive as a strong circulation along Chennai coast (over sea) and has drifted S-S-W.
The system is expected to drift even more to S-S-W and enter inland thru N.Tamilnadu coast between Pondicherry and Chennai in another 12 hrs.
The present Anti-cyclone over central Maharastra is pushing the system even more S-W / South.

1pm, Satellite IR shows that still most of convective activity is over sea and nearer to land.

Still scattered Heavy rains forecast for S.Andhra coast, Chennai and N,central Tamilnadu coast during next 2 days.

This system is followed by a weak easterlies.. which will affect the N,central Tamilnadu coast till 25/26-Nov.

Most importantly a fresh circulation is expected over S-E corner Bay on 26-Nov.

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 9.50am, Overcast Sky, patches of dense clouds, appears slight drizzle possible. 

RT @ranganaathan: @weatherofIndia Drizzles in T-Nagar, Chennai at 5.45AM, outcast sky...Looks more rain coming

RT @grajagrajagraja: @weatherofindia raining in kolatur, Chennai . 6:11am

RT @maddysutrave: @weatherofindia 05.30 am onwards. Heavy and steady rains in mogappair, Chennai .. Still on

By morning "03B" will be just a circulation. Still heavy rain possible for s.coast andhra, Chennai and n.TN

11pm, "03B" has weakened even more in past 6hrs at the same location. Now almost no convective activity seen.

RT @akaasi: Heavy downpour along GST rd Perambalur dist, Tamilnadu @weatherofindia 10:15pm

RT @akaasi: Steady drizzle at thittakkudi kadalur dist, Tamilnadu @weatherofindia 10:05pm

"03B" - Alive and moved S-W.

4:45pm, Satellite IR with IR temperature shows good convective activity around the core of the system.
Moved S-W during the past 12hrs.
Moving slowly to as it is expected with a LOW system.
Pressure is still around 1004mb.
Winds upto 45km/hr.
Landfall of the system is expected near Chennai in another 18 to 24hrs. 
Heavy Rains with Winds gusts expected along S.Andhra coast, Chennai and N.Tamilnadu coast within next 12hrs.

Here's the latest position plot on map as of 5:30pm

At 6pm, Some convective activity can be seen popping along N-N-W, N-E and East of Chennai.

"03B" - Nearing S.Andhra coast, Chennai.. Rain expected from late evening.

2:30pm, "03B" - Nearing S.Andhra coast, Chennai. 
It still maintains a circulation with good convective activity over N,N-E quadrant.
Convective activity over W,S,S-E quadrant are calm at this time.. expected to erupt again towards night today.
From tonight, Heavy Showers with winds upto 40 / 50km/hr expected along S,central.Andhra coast, Chennai and N.Tamilnadu coast... Some showers are already seen along Central Andhra coast.

#chennai - 1:56pm, Temp. at 30.4°C with good Low cloud formation. Windy at times from N-N-W. Winds are reaching upto 25km/hr.

W.D is in effect over Kashmir, Rain/Snow seen over upper reaches of Kashmir. Cloudy over Punjab, Himachal & Uttarakand. http://ow.ly/i/19smH 

Present W.D over Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal will be active till Saturday .. more rain/snow expected in these zones .. http://ow.ly/i/19snj 

In next 24hrs a strong Anti-cyclone is expected to establish over W-central Maharastra and persist till 27-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/19sl2

The anti-cyclone over Jharkand & Bengal to drift S-W and vanish in next 36hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/19slx 

Showers expected to reach S.Andhra coast & #Chennai by today evening / night.. COLA model expects Heavy rain for S.coast Andhra

Showers for S.Tamilnadu & S.Kerala to continue for next 3 days.

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 9.25am, After a gap,Cloud formations yestday eve / night, with slight drizzle. Today, its clear sky, hot & humid. 

"03B" - Drifted W-S-W, Strong convective activity seen.

"03B" - Drifted W-S-W, Strong convective activity seen.
Position plot on map as of 5:30am IST.
Pressure is at around 1004mb so it's a LOW pressure system.

8:30am, Satellite shot shows.. Deep convective activity from 17th parallel in North to south upto 11th parallel, this shows the elongation of the circulation.

NOGAPS and COLA model predicts that "03B" will make landfall along Chennai by early hrs of 22-Nov.

Rain expected to start along S.Andhra coast, Chennai and N.Tamilnadu coast by today evening.
Isolated Very Heavy rainfall can also be expected along these zones tomorrow.
Wind gusts also predicted upto 40 or 50km/hr along these zones.

3am, "03B" is getting closer to s.Andhra coast. Strong convective activity seen now!.. http://ow.ly/i/19ogE

Mild showers or drizzle possible along Chennai and S.Andhra coast before morning.

Showers expected to reach Central, N-E Andhra coast around morning ! due to LOW "03B"

#chennai - temp. now is 28 deg C. A partly cloudy night ahead ... min. temp. may reach 23 deg C at around morning.

"03B" - Still a LOW pressure system with good convective activity.

"03B" - Still a LOW pressure system with good convective activity.
It has crawled W-S-W slowly in past 12 hrs.
6pm, latest satellite IR shows good convective activity along South, E, S-E of the system.

Latest analysis show that a moderate Easterlies is pushing into E,S-E Bay.. and this may feed the LOW "03B". Good convective activity expected over "03B" during next 24hrs.

NOGAPS latest model continue to suggest a LOW system making landfall along Chennai, N.Tamilnadu coast & S.Andhra coast on Evening of 22-Nov.

RT @qinnairen: Its 19°C here. But, chill winds. Amazing. #DelhiNCR @weatherofindia. (6:30pm)

Join our Google Groups mailing list to stay updated & enter into discussion with our readers... follow this link >>  http://ow.ly/fqUHX 

S-E corner Bay is expected to pop another circulation on 26/27-Nov.

Today a weak easterlies is seen pushing into S-E Bay.. this may give rise to GOOD rain for N.Tamilnadu coast, #chennai along with "03B".

A moderate W.D will reach W.Kashmir by tonight .. Rain / Snow expected from early morning and expected to last another 3 / 4 days.

Due to this upcoming W.D.. rain expected over N.Punjab and into Himachal during next 3 days.

@sarakumar1 >> #chennai can expect showers from noon tomorrow.

4:30pm, Isolated shower seen over S.tip of Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/19dua

"03B" - at 3pm.. strong convective activity seen. Now the pressure is around 1003mb.. ow.ly/i/19dwU

Summer of 2013 to be hotter, with less rain.. http://ow.ly/fqBsd 

Today a weak Anti-cyclone is seen over Jharkand, Bihar.. this is expected to strengthen and drift South in next 24hrs. http://ow.ly/i/19bLV

If this anti-cyclone drifts South then it'll speed up the W-S-W movement for Bay "03B" during next 24hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/19bMl 

While "03B" moves close to land on 21-Nov .. most of showers are expected over S.Andhra coast and spillover for #chennai, some parts of N.TN

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 9.30am, Clear skies, sunny, and foggy in the morning. Shivering cold in the night.

Chennai - had a warm morning today, Nungambakkam records 23.2 deg C.. due to some moisture push from bay "03B".

#chennai - 1pm is having a temp. of 32 deg C. Wind at upper levels have picked up strength and its from North.

NOGAPS & COLA model suggests that "03B" will make landfall along S.Andhra coast, Chennai on 21-Nov as a LOW pressure system

"03B" - Now a LOW pressure system and alive.

"03B" - Now a LOW pressure system now and have generated fresh convective activity along its E,S-E,N-E quadrant.
It has crawled slightly towards W-S-W in past 18hrs.
11:30am, Latest satellite shot reveals fresh convective activity and it still maintains a circulation.

Latest location plot on Map.

IMD warning at 11am IST

-----------------------------------------

The well marked low pressure area over westcentral Bay of Bengal persists over the same region at 0830

hrs IST of today the 20

th

 November 2012. The system would move west-southwestwards towards south Andhra 

Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coasts and weaken further during next 48 hours. 

Under the influence of this system, moderate rainfall would occur at many places with isolated heavy falls 

over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, north coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry on 21

ST

 and over south coastal Andhra 

Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Puducherry and north Tamil Nadu on 22

nd

 November

Both NOGAPS & COLA model suggests that "03B" will make landfall along S.Andhra coast, Chennai and N.Tamilnadu coast during evening of 21-Nov as a LOW pressure system.

"03B" - 4pm Satellite Visible shot.

Isolated showers expected for S.Tamilnadu, S.Kerala during next 2/3 days.. may increase after that.

Showers expected along S.Andhra coast, Chennai and N.Tamilnadu coast from evening of 20-Nov (or) from morning of 21-Nov http://ow.ly/foIms 

Next moderate W.D is expected to reach Kashmir by evening of 21-Nov.. and expected to last for 3 days.

"03B" - Stationary, Dry and weakening. Rain expected !

4pm, Latest satellite IR shows some fresh convective activity around the core of "03B".
Positioned almost stationary at 15N, 86E.

IMD warning at 2pm
---------------------------------------

The depression over westcentral  Bay of Bengal  remained practically stationary and lay centred at 

1130 hrs IST of today the 19

th

 November 2012 near latitude 15.0

0

N and longitude 86.5

0

E, about 700 km 

east-northeast  of  Chennai  and  450  km  southeast  of  Visakhapatnam.  The  system  would  move  westsouthwestwards towards south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coasts and weaken further during 

next 24 hours.

Under the influence of this system, moderate rainfall would occur at many places over south coastal 

Andhra Pradesh, north coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry on 20

th

 and 21

st

 November. Sea condition along 

and off Andhra Pradesh coast will be rough during next 24 hours. Fishermen along Andhra Pradesh, north 

Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts are advised to be cautious while venturing into sea during next 24 hours

Both NOGAPS and COLA model suggest a S.coastal Andhra landfall as Depression or LOW on noon/evening of 21-Nov.

It may weaken to a LOW over sea itself on 20-Nov.

Showers expected along S.Andhra coast, Chennai and N.Tamilnadu coast from evening of 20-Nov (or) from morning of 21-Nov.

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 10.15am, Clear skies, Sunny and Warm. Dry conditions prevails.

#chennai - Airport records 20.5 deg C today morning. Now 10:50am, skies have 90% cleared out with Deep blue skies.