Sunday, October 14, 2012

Recent observations indicate temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have cooled further for the second week in succession  Nino 3 and 3.4 are cooler by 0.2c. SOI and tropical cloudiness have remained at neutral levels. 
The chance of El Niño developing in 2012 has reduced over the past fortnight.

The latest SOI value to 7 October is 0.7. Climate models surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology suggest the chance of El Niño has further decreased.
The current Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index is +0.6 and falls within the neutral values. Recent model forecasts predict that the positive IOD will weaken during October.

Both of the above events should spell out and indicate a normal precipitation for the NEM season. If at all, a borderline El-Nino, would hint at a slightly above normal rainfall for the Southern TN regions.

The weak phase of the current MJO ends from the 16th of October. Bay gets active and buzzing from next week. 
The MJO achieves a strong phase from the 22nd of October, enhancing chances of increased Bay activity... possibly setting the stage for the NEM to advance....

more details in Vagaries 

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