Saturday, October 27, 2012

Latest on "93W" over Bay

6:30am IST Satellite pic shows.. heavy convective activity seen in and around the system. Expected to become a LOW pressure system in next 24hrs. Now the pressure is around 1007mb.


Latest from JTWC, 11:30pm, 26-Oct
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 
94.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN 
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 0544Z OSCAT PASS 
REVEALS A WELL DEFINED BUT WEAK (10-15 KT) LLCC. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE AREA IS JUST 
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVING 
SOME SLIGHT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA 
REMAINS LOW (05-10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE 
FAVORABLE (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE 
DEPICTS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO 
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM

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