6:30am IST Satellite pic shows.. heavy convective activity seen in and around the system. Expected to become a LOW pressure system in next 24hrs. Now the pressure is around 1007mb.
Latest from JTWC, 11:30pm, 26-Oct
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Latest from JTWC, 11:30pm, 26-Oct
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 94.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 0544Z OSCAT PASS REVEALS A WELL DEFINED BUT WEAK (10-15 KT) LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE AREA IS JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVING SOME SLIGHT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA REMAINS LOW (05-10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
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