A high pressure is likely to form in the Bay by Saturday. This High is expected to last for 2 days till 15th October. The sea level pressure required during NEM is a large formation of low over the Bay.
But what we need for the NEM to advance is a prominent anti-cyclone at 500 hpa over the Central Myanmar region. This may start forming around the 16th of October.
Till then, only the western side will get some precipitation, with west winds rushing towards the high. Thus keeping the SWM "alive" in Kerala and adjoining TN.
Negative Parameter: 200Hpa westerly jet streams are still not perfectly formed, and upper level high is weak.
Positive Parameters for the NEM may commence from 16th October.
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