"95B" - Nearing Somalia almost as a Cyclone -- Update #1

12:30pm, Latest position of this W-central Arabian sea system.
Now it's almost a cyclone.
Wind = 45 km/h
Pressure = 1000mb
Position = 11N, 59.6E

JTWC warning at 1:30am IST
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 61.7E, IS 
NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 61.3E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF SOCOTRA. 
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF 
FORMATIVE BUT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY 
INTO AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER. A 231514Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS 
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH FORMATIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 230830Z OSCAT IMAGE ALSO  
DEPICTS RAIN-FLAGGED 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS 
IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND 
INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.