South West Monsoon 2012: Is it one of the worst in six decades?

The cumulative rainfall data (June 1 – July 30 2012) of the three worst monsoon  are as follows

2002 - 326 mm

1972 - 343 mm

2012 - 354 mm

With drought conditions prevailing in most parts of India, Monsoon 2012 is set to be the worst in the last 65 years. Although it has been almost eight weeks since monsoon first hit the coast of Kerala, the cumulative rainfall data (June 1 –July 30 2012) poses a dismal situation. Rainfall is 20% below normal in India which certainly affects the economy as a whole including the ‘Aam aadmi’.

A Zee Research Group (ZRG) analysis reveals that in terms of rainfall received, India will face the third worst monsoon since independence. India has received 354 mm of rainfall in between June 1 to 30 July 2012. In 2002, during the same period, India received 326 mm of rainfall, which is the worst rainfall figure, followed by 343 mm in 1972.Until July 30 this year the overall monsoon has been 20% less than average rainfall in the country. Northwest India has faced the maximum deficit of 39%, followed by South Peninsula 22%, Central India 20% and East and Northeast India 10% respectively.Laxman Singh Rathore, Director General, India Meteorological Department (IMD) expressed his concerns over rainfall deficit situation prevailing in the country. “States like Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab have badly been affected due to scanty rains in the last two month of monsoon period,” he averred.However, the Saurashtra-Kutch, Diu is the most affected region in terms of rainfall deficit (77%), followed by Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi pack (69%), Punjab (66%), West Rajasthan (63%), West Uttar Pradesh (55%) and Gujarat (54%) respectively.

Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan came across as being the worst hit states in terms of rains received. The repercussion is already evident as these three states together account for about 50% of oilseed production, 40% of pulses production and over 57% of cotton production.Rainfall directly affects sowing which in turn affects crop production. The deficient and unevenly distributed rainfall has invariably been associated with decline in crop and this leads to the increase in the prices of essential commodities.

With deficit rainfall conditions prevailing in the last two months, the prices of essential commodities have risen sharply in the last one year.The retail price of Gram Dal has jumped 72% to Rs 65 as on July 30, 2012, compared to Rs 38 in the corresponding period last year. During the last one year, Mustard oil prices has increased to 32%,followed by Groundnutwith 31per cent, Gur 20%, Sugar 16%, Sunflower 15% , Soya oil 14.5%, Vanaspati 14.29% and Tea 13% .

Source: DNA  Newspaper