Sunday, July 29, 2012

Outlook For next 3 days, Monday, 30th July, Tuesday, 31st July and Wednesday 1st August:
Not a very august begining for the month...I do not know if I have got my basics right, but i see a break monsoon condition for Central, Western, Southern and peninsula India from Wednesday, 1st August.

Monday: Axis remains in the current position, along Northern Rajasthan/North MP/UP and W.Bengal....with the UAC weakening over N.Rajasthan. Embedded UAC over Up keeps the region active. Eastern off shore trough remains intact.
Heavy rainfall in the region where the 3 states of AP/Maharashtra/Chattisgarh merge. Some locations can get upto 100 mms in 24 hrs.The region around this area gets heavy rains, with Nagpur seeing some convective and heavy showers Monday and more in the night.
Konkan sees it usual medium rains, with precipitation measuring between 20-40 mms at some stations along the coastal belt.

Tuesday and Wednesday: MJO in our seas enters into a weak phase.
The axis shifts Northwards towards UP and Utteranchal. touching foothills of Himalayas by Wednesday.
Delhi NCR could see precipitation on Wednesday evening as the rains approach the adjoining Utteranchal regions. Increase in rainfall over Central Nepal as rainfall rushes to Utteranchal and adjoining UP.
We see rains decreasing from Chattisgarh/Vidharbha and Northern AP areas.
Further decrease in Konkan from Monday levels by Wednesday.
South,(Interior Karnataka and TN) the usual sporadic showers (some convective) and in very isolated pockets.
No meaningfull increase in intensity in Gujarat and rest interior Maharashtra.

citywise forecast on vagaries.

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