Japanese researchers have maintained below-normal monsoon outlook for India in the latest forecasts

Japanese researchers have maintained below-normal monsoon outlook for India in the latest forecasts.

They are forecasting a dismal July for most parts of the country, following a June which could be good in parts only.

Northern and eastern parts of north-west India and parts of east-central India might get to see normal rains during June.

DRY IN WEST

But the rain is likely to fail the west coast up to Gujarat, scientists at the Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) in Tokyo said.

Jammu and Kashmir, north Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh are among the regions likely to benefit from June rains.

East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and coastal Orissa and adjoining coastal north Andhra, too, are projected to be gainers.

The crucial July month could likely prove a disaster, if the RIGC model is to be believed.

What could mess up the monsoon this year is the feared negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in which the east of the ocean warms up anomalously.

NEGATIVE IOD

And the RIGC has retained the warning for ‘a weak negative IOD to evolve in early summer and peak towards the autumn.'

The monsoon is said to prosper when the reverse happens – warmth shifting to the west, as it happened on a trot on three years from 2006.

In other analysis, the RIGC said that the tropical Pacific condition has returned to a ‘neutral' state, ending a prolonged La Nina event.

This is what drove the successful monsoon years of 2010 and 2011 after a disastrous El Nino event in year 2009.

The neutral state will continue at least until the end of this year, the RIGC said. It has also forecast a colder winter for the US and Eurasia this year.

FRESH WESTERLY

Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has joined the outlook for a fresh western disturbance over north-west India by Friday.

The system will affect the western Himalayan region from Thursday onwards and adjoining plains from Friday, the IMD said.

According to global forecasts, the system will run with a bearing that weighs in anomalously to the south.

It is expected to hit southwest Rajasthan, adjoining Gujarat (including Mumbai) and west Madhya Pradesh to bring in some wet weather. 

taken from http://www.thehindubusinessline.com