Wednesday, April 25, 2012

"Bay of Bengal" low pressure parameter is no longer a worrying factor. Normally, the Bay hosts a pre-Monsoon low anytime after 15th. April. Like I mentioned in the previous MW, in 2010 we had a cyclone in the Bay by the third week, and in 2009 a cyclone crossed the Bay on 12th April.
We have had a B-1 now !

As on today, this region still maintains a good prospect to the formation of another quick low. The winds indicate a weak low trying to establish itself. 
Also +ve sign of a quick formation is that the SST is conducive. Map shows around 31c near the Andaman Islands. Ideal temperature for quick low formation.
A pulse from the far east is possible in the next 15 days. 

Read Complete Report of all parameters pertaining to SWM and Monsoon Expectation on Vagaries

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