The
2010-2011 La Niña was one of the strongest in recorded history. Though the La
Niña was officially pronounced dead in April this year, this blog however had
been predicting a multi-year La Niña with a short intervening period of ENSO neutral conditions
during the boreal (northern hemisphere) summer. This was the basis of a pattern
thrown up by the analysis of historical data.
There
are preliminary indications that the 2010-2011 La Niña will be no different and
most likely will taken on a multi-year character. The recent ENSO wrap up data
of Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia for instance shows the Southern
Oscillation Index (SoI) in clear La Niña territory at +9.9 after a very brief
period in neutral territory. (Note:
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event).
Similarly, the Niño 3.4 value have turned negative at - 0.2 C, seem inching
back to La Niña territory/ (Note: Sustained value above - 0.5 C may indicate a
La Niña event).
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