"98A" - Look where it's heading !! Not even a depression yet !

During the past 24 hrs, the LOW pressure system has moved N-E towards S. Gujarat .

JTWC warns that the system can become a Cyclone in another 36 hrs.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 18.7N 
69.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED SLIGHTLY 
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING NEARER TO 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE SAME IMPEDIMENTS TO DEVELOPMENT THAT HAVE 
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST WEEK (STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND 
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE) ARE 
CONTINUING. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL DEVELOPED. ENHANCED 
SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA, THE RESULT OF A MADDEN-
JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) EVENT, ARE SUSTAINING THE BOUNDARY LAYER 
CIRCULATION. THE LLCC IS MEANDERING UNDER WEAK STEERING FLOW BUT 
OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS, THE NET MOVEMENT HAS BEEN TO THE NORTHEAST. 
THE COASTAL DRIFT IS A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE 2 MB 24 HOUR PRESSURE 
FALLS AT MUMBAI, INDIA. A 101651Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 25-30 KNOT 
SOUTHWESTERLIES ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT A SHIP 
REPORT FROM 50 NM NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC SHOWS ONLY 20 KNOTS. THE 
101200Z UPPER AIR STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED 
BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF 10-20 KNOTS OF 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IN THE AGGREGATE, THERE HAVE BEEN VERY LITTLE 
CHANGES TO THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST WEEK, WITH A 
NEARLY EVEN BALANCE BETWEEN POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE DEVELOPMENTAL 
FACTORS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT 
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ABOVE 35 KNOTS, BUT RATHER TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY AND BEGIN WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. DUE 
TO THE COMPETING DYNAMICS, HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE 
SYSTEM TO REMAIN IN A STEADY-STATE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE 
PRESENT INTENSITY AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 

COLA model expects the system to move in N-N-E again and after touching Gujarat coast it'll move in W-N-W direction. Before touching S. Gujarat coast it'll attain the Cyclone status, that'll occur in another 36 hrs.

IMD model says that the system will trace the path that of COLA model but the System will never attain the Cyclone status.

HEAVY showers expected along entire Maharastra, S. Gujarat coast for next 48 hrs and more.