Low indicated in the 22nd - 26th Vagaries Map has formed in the Bay to the SE of Sri Lanka. At 1000 mb on Friday afternoon, likely to deepen and approach T.N. coast as a depression of 996 mb. More on the projected path tonite...Sudden Change in synoptic situation shows an unexpected W.D. coming and a SW stream at 500 hpa....more tonite on vagaries.
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NEM continues to be inadequate. As Rajesh has mentioned this may be the last one (we hope it moves up NW into TN else may drift into Arabian sea and vanish like earlier - but Western disturbances may opppse movement inwards???? )
ReplyDeleteAnyway 2011 NEM was very strange - all lows tend to move towards Arabian sea and never crossed above 10deg latitude.
End of 2011 monsoon also brings into focus drought in almost entire interior Karnataka and AndhraPradesh. TN yet to be seen?
Apparently last few years (5 years)metrics show South India to be more drought prone. In reverse angle Rajisthan,Gujarat and MP are becoming more wetter and rain intense.
Karnataka and Meghalaya lost most heaviest rainy place to Maharashtra - which in coming years may emerge as most intense rainy state.