Monday, December 19, 2011

Late December and early January Cyclones: Will it happen during 2011 or 2012

Many models predict cyclone to come close to Tamil Nadu coast during last week of December 2011. Off late GFS is not so accurate in its forecast.

I have compiled some of the cyclones which have formed in December and have crossed Tamil Nadu coast since 1950.

Almost all the cyclones have formed in the first week of December. Only one cyclone ie 1964 Rameshwaram Cyclone which crossed the Tamil Nadu coast and the 2000 Sri Lanka cyclone have formed around the Christmas period. And the 1964 cyclone was the only super cyclone to hit Tamil Nadu in recent memory. The Sri Lanka cyclone was the first cyclone over Sri Lanka with winds of at least hurricane strength since 1978.

GFS Boxing day Future Cyclone - 26th December

GFS New Year Future Cyclone - 02nd Janauary

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