Position :: 6.6 N and 84.4 E
Pressure :: 1006 mb
JTWC warning :
------------------------------------------------
Latest satellite IR shot, 3pm
-----------------------------------------------------------
COLA model prediction
--------------------------------------------------------
Suggests a Depression and hit Central Tamilnadu coast on 28-Dec.
IMD GFS prediction
---------------------------------------------------------
Does not support a Depression formation and supports only a Extreme S. Tamilnadu hit on 28/29-Dec.
Pressure :: 1006 mb
JTWC warning :
------------------------------------------------
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 87.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 83.4E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION AND DEEPENING OF CONVECTION, ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN INDIAN OCEAN MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTEROMETRY REVEALS A SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS IN BOTH SEMICIRCLES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. A WEST WIND BURST ASSOCIATED WITH A MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION IS INCREASING THE ROTATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYERS OF THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC EXISTS UNDER A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT REGION, WHICH IS MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 26 TO 28 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MEET THE MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Latest satellite IR shot, 3pm
-----------------------------------------------------------
COLA model prediction
--------------------------------------------------------
Suggests a Depression and hit Central Tamilnadu coast on 28-Dec.
IMD GFS prediction
---------------------------------------------------------
Does not support a Depression formation and supports only a Extreme S. Tamilnadu hit on 28/29-Dec.
No comments:
Post a Comment