Cyclone "Keila" ... makes landfall at 11:30pm near Salalah, Oman

Cyclone "Keila" ... makes landfall at 11:30pm near Salalah, Oman. 
Now it has tracked North East 


JTWC warning, 8:30pm IST
--------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (KEILA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE 
YEMEN COAST WITH A RECENT FLARE OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A 
RELATIVELY SMALL CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION 
IS BASED ON THE MSI AND A 021233Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE WITH FAIR 
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 020814Z OSCAT 
PARTIAL PASS SHOWING SUSTAINED 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
(05-10 KNOTS), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS IT LIES CLOSE TO A 
POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE. KEILA IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING 
ENVIRONMENT AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH HAS WEAKENED THE 
STEERING RIDGE. BY TAU 12 THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD HAVE EXITED 
THE REGION ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD 
IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUNDINGS FROM SALALAH, OMAN (17.03N 54.08E) SHOW 
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM 700MB AND UP, THEREFORE INDICATING 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS NEW STEERING INFLUENCE SHOULD TRACK TC 03A 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF OMAN AND YEMEN. KEILA SHOULD 
BRIEFLY WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 12 DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BUT 
THEN SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (>28 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
BY TAU 48 TC 03A SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE OMAN COAST AND GRADUALLY 
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) 
WHERE IT SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS LIMITED, HOWEVER, ALL MEMBERS ARE 
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD RECURVATURE IN THE TRACK. 
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 7 FEET.

Predicted track
-------------------------------

Latest satellite IR
-------------------------------

Latest IMD GFS models also suggest a South West movement from now and die along Yemen coast in next 48 hrs