Latest satellite IR shot and Track
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JTWC warning
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JTWC warning
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POSITION NEAR 17.4N 54.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (KEILA), LOCATED APPROXIMIATELY 55 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS SHOWN BY WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHALLOW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANT OF 03A COULD EXIT BACK INTO THE ARABIAN SEA AFTER TAU 48 NEAR 50.0E AND REINTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD AT 20 DEGREES SOUTHWESTWARD WITH WBAR ON THE RIGHT SIDE AND NOGAPS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION
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