As stated earlier - Rajisthan,Gujarat,Saurashtra,Kutch are no more dry deserts but have become extreme rain intense areas. Recent fall of 400mm in 24hours over Saurashtra/Kutch has amazed us - infact all UAC,low pressures regularly cross - 8th time in this season and SW monsoon extends beyound sept/oct in these areas. These areas may become major fertile agricultural, forest areas - rice,sugarcane cultivation. This change in weather pattern over saurashtra/kutch over last 10years is subject of reasearch for weather scientist.
On other side southern India - interior karnataka,Rayalseems,TN,SriLanka are in path of desertification. No low pressures,UACs,vertex have ever formed- september also dry no rain. In fact 24hours max rain never crosses beyound 150mm. Also over the years we observe decreasing NE monsoon with less days and may or may not form. Even if cyclones form either do not cross TN or fail to produce rain.
Do we find any co-relation between increasing intense rains over central,Rajisthan,Gujrat,Maharastra and decreasing rain over southern India? Myself strongly feel this is happening.
I do not accept with the fact that Interior Karnatak/TN/Srilanka are facing prolonged deficient rainfall. The Met data gives a different picture from your fact. Last year there was excess rainfall in all the above three places. There has been an increase in NEM rainfall in the past decade. For the past 15 yrs NEM has either been near normal /Excess most of the times , unlike 1970-1980 period. But in the past two decades, NEM has always been much dependant on depressions/Cyclones. In many cyclones had even played spoil sport, where in they had pulled all the energy away from BOB in the making there by leaving a long gap in monsoon.
As per the current trend, Positive dipole has often lead to Excess rainfall NEM. A strong pulse of NEM associated with depression/Cyclone in October itself(unlike last two years) and then a long hiatus can be seen.
Hi Rajesh/Pradeep/others,
ReplyDeleteAs stated earlier - Rajisthan,Gujarat,Saurashtra,Kutch are no more dry deserts but have become extreme rain intense areas. Recent fall of 400mm in 24hours over Saurashtra/Kutch has amazed us - infact all UAC,low pressures regularly cross - 8th time in this season and SW monsoon extends beyound sept/oct in these areas. These areas may become major fertile agricultural, forest areas - rice,sugarcane cultivation. This change in weather pattern over saurashtra/kutch over last 10years is subject of reasearch for weather scientist.
On other side southern India - interior karnataka,Rayalseems,TN,SriLanka are in path of desertification. No low pressures,UACs,vertex have ever formed- september also dry no rain. In fact 24hours max rain never crosses beyound 150mm. Also over the years we observe decreasing NE monsoon with less days and may or may not form. Even if cyclones form either do not cross TN or fail to produce rain.
Do we find any co-relation between increasing intense rains over central,Rajisthan,Gujrat,Maharastra and decreasing rain over southern India? Myself strongly feel this is happening.
I do not accept with the fact that Interior Karnatak/TN/Srilanka are facing prolonged deficient rainfall. The Met data gives a different picture from your fact. Last year there was excess rainfall in all the above three places. There has been an increase in NEM rainfall in the past decade. For the past 15 yrs NEM has either been near normal /Excess most of the times , unlike 1970-1980 period. But in the past two decades, NEM has always been much dependant on depressions/Cyclones. In many cyclones had even played spoil sport, where in they had pulled all the energy away from BOB in the making there by leaving a long gap in monsoon.
ReplyDeleteAs per the current trend, Positive dipole has often lead to Excess rainfall NEM. A strong pulse of NEM associated with depression/Cyclone in October itself(unlike last two years) and then a long hiatus can be seen.
I donno wat u r talking
ReplyDelete