Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Monsoon onset among the best on view in recent times

The Met subdivision of Kerala and Lakshadweep, the gateway for the southwest monsoon, is witnessing one of the strongest onsets of seasonal rains in recent memory.
Isolated heavy rainfall has been warned of here until Friday, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said this (Tuesday) morning.
An extended forecast valid until Sunday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over extreme south peninsula, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
The good times may last into the middle of June, according to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction.
It sees the rains likely sweeping the entire country, including northwest India, after feverish activity in the Arabian Sea elicits some response from the uncharacteristically quiet Bay of Bengal basin.
IMD projections too show monsoon gathering strength and sustaining itself well until June 5, up to which forecasts are available.
This is despite the nuisance value of an existing upper air cyclonic circulation descending to set up a likely low-pressure area and moving away from the west coast.
In the process, though, the system will have driven the rains farther into the north along the coast, global models suggested.
The IMD said in the morning update that the monsoon has advanced into some more parts of south Bay of Bengal, entire Andaman Sea and some parts of east-central Bay of Bengal.
The northern limit remained stationary along Aminidivi, Kozhikode and Kodaikanal to the west but this may change soon.
Conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon into more parts of Arabian Sea, rest of Kerala, more parts of Tamil Nadu, central and south Bay of Bengal and some parts of Karnataka during the next three days.
During the day yesterday (Monday), widespread rainfall was reported from Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It was fairly widespread over the north-eastern States and Kerala.
Satellite pictures early on Tuesday morning shows convective clouds rising over parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, west-central and south Arabian Sea, east Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.
A short-term forecast said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Lakshadweep and Kerala until Friday.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers have been forecast over the Northeastern States, West Bengal, Sikkim, south Karnataka and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Konkan, Goa, north interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and rest of east India.
It will be isolated over the rest of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and central India. 

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