- Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 251 cm (Annual around 1200)
- Car Nicobar (A&N Islands) - 120 cm (Annual around 300 cm)
- Port Blair (A&N Islands) - 114 cm (Annual around 350 cm)
- Silchar (Assam) - 85 cm (Annual around 350)
- Passighat (Arunachal Pradesh) - 83 cm (Annual around 450)
- Kochi AP (Kerala) - 77 cm (Annual around 350 cm)
- North Lakhimpur (Assam) - 73 cm (Annual around 350)
- Punalur (Kerala) - 71 cm (Annual around 300)
- Itanagar (Arunachal Pradesh) - 71 cm (Annual around 350)
- Gangtok (Sikkim) - 69 cm (Annual around 400)
- Jorhat (Assam) - 68 cm (Annual around 250)
- Lengpui (Mizoram) - 67 cm (Annual around 250)
- Jalpaiguri (West Bengal) - 66 cm (Annual around 350 cm)
- Shillong (Meghlaya) - 65 cm (Annual around 250 cm)
- Kottayam (Kerala) - 62 cm (Annual around 300)
- Coochbehar (West Bengal) - 60 cm (Annual around 350)
- Coonoor (Tamil Nadu) - 53 cm (Annual around 175)
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
All India Rainfall toppers from 1st January 2011 - 31st May 2011
Monsoon onset among the best on view in recent times
The Met subdivision of Kerala and Lakshadweep, the gateway for the southwest monsoon, is witnessing one of the strongest onsets of seasonal rains in recent memory.
Isolated heavy rainfall has been warned of here until Friday, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said this (Tuesday) morning.
An extended forecast valid until Sunday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over extreme south peninsula, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
The good times may last into the middle of June, according to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction.
It sees the rains likely sweeping the entire country, including northwest India, after feverish activity in the Arabian Sea elicits some response from the uncharacteristically quiet Bay of Bengal basin.
IMD projections too show monsoon gathering strength and sustaining itself well until June 5, up to which forecasts are available.
This is despite the nuisance value of an existing upper air cyclonic circulation descending to set up a likely low-pressure area and moving away from the west coast.
In the process, though, the system will have driven the rains farther into the north along the coast, global models suggested.
The IMD said in the morning update that the monsoon has advanced into some more parts of south Bay of Bengal, entire Andaman Sea and some parts of east-central Bay of Bengal.
The northern limit remained stationary along Aminidivi, Kozhikode and Kodaikanal to the west but this may change soon.
Conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon into more parts of Arabian Sea, rest of Kerala, more parts of Tamil Nadu, central and south Bay of Bengal and some parts of Karnataka during the next three days.
During the day yesterday (Monday), widespread rainfall was reported from Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It was fairly widespread over the north-eastern States and Kerala.
Satellite pictures early on Tuesday morning shows convective clouds rising over parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, west-central and south Arabian Sea, east Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.
A short-term forecast said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Lakshadweep and Kerala until Friday.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers have been forecast over the Northeastern States, West Bengal, Sikkim, south Karnataka and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Konkan, Goa, north interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and rest of east India.
It will be isolated over the rest of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and central India.
Shanghai is currently experiencing its longest period of no precipitation in 138 years ... http://bit.ly/j7gXW9
Chennai - N-W of chennai more than 70 kms there's a Thunder cell in action and heavy rain witnessed .. http://ping.fm/WAIcq
You wait ages for a massive waterspout, then FOUR come at once ... Australia ... http://bit.ly/mjFWIX
Shanghai sees lowest levels of rainfall in 138 years
Shanghai is currently experiencing its longest period of no precipitation in 138 years, according to a report released on Monday by the Shanghai Municipal Meteorological Bureau.
Shanghai's urban areas have recorded just 132.9 mm of rainfall since the beginning of this year, the lowest level since 1873, said the report.
Shanghai's urban areas have recorded just 132.9 mm of rainfall since the beginning of this year, the lowest level since 1873, said the report.
Shanghai already experienced a dry and cold winter last year, with the the lowest average temperatures recorded in the city since 1978, the report said.
Bookies place their money on rainfall
Manish Pachouly, Hindustan Times
Mumbai, May 30, 2011
With the IPL-4 season having drawn to a close, bookies across the city have moved on to their next target: rainfall. On Sunday, the city’s bookies opened rates for the amount of rainfall Mumbai would witness from June to September, with every millimetre of rainfall expected to fetch more than Rs1.5 crore.
Bookies expect a business of approximately Rs3,500 crore this monsoon and predict that the city would witness a seasonal rainfall of around 2,100-mm.
In a first, bookies have opened seasonal rainfall (the total rainfall from June to September) rates for not just Colaba, but also Santacruz.
Bookies have also opened rates for monthly rainfall (in individual months, beginning June and ending September) in Colaba. “In case of Santacruz, we have only opened seasonal rainfall rates and not monthly, as this is the first time we have placed bets for rains expected in the suburbs. Depending on the response, we will decide if we should open monthly rainfall rates in Santacruz from next season,” said a bookie on condition of anonymity.
Sources said that bookies from Delhi, Indore, Ahmedabad, Guwahati, Jaipur and Kolkata had come to Mumbai to open rates for rainfall in the city.
“Bets not only come from Mumbai or from within the country, but even from Dubai, Sharjah and Pakistan,” said the bookie.
He added that most high-profile bookies have internet-enabled mobile phones and they update themselves on the rainfall figures released by the weather bureau everyday, even while travelling across the city.
Bookies expect the monsoon to arrive in Mumbai between June 11 and June 13. “Experts in opening rates for Mumbai rains are keeping a track on when the monsoon arrives in Andaman and Nicobar, and Kerala,” the bookie said. “After the monsoon arrives, the rates would be updated depending on the rainfall the city receives,” he added.
Mumbai, May 30, 2011
With the IPL-4 season having drawn to a close, bookies across the city have moved on to their next target: rainfall. On Sunday, the city’s bookies opened rates for the amount of rainfall Mumbai would witness from June to September, with every millimetre of rainfall expected to fetch more than Rs1.5 crore.
Bookies expect a business of approximately Rs3,500 crore this monsoon and predict that the city would witness a seasonal rainfall of around 2,100-mm.
In a first, bookies have opened seasonal rainfall (the total rainfall from June to September) rates for not just Colaba, but also Santacruz.
Bookies have also opened rates for monthly rainfall (in individual months, beginning June and ending September) in Colaba. “In case of Santacruz, we have only opened seasonal rainfall rates and not monthly, as this is the first time we have placed bets for rains expected in the suburbs. Depending on the response, we will decide if we should open monthly rainfall rates in Santacruz from next season,” said a bookie on condition of anonymity.
Sources said that bookies from Delhi, Indore, Ahmedabad, Guwahati, Jaipur and Kolkata had come to Mumbai to open rates for rainfall in the city.
“Bets not only come from Mumbai or from within the country, but even from Dubai, Sharjah and Pakistan,” said the bookie.
He added that most high-profile bookies have internet-enabled mobile phones and they update themselves on the rainfall figures released by the weather bureau everyday, even while travelling across the city.
Bookies expect the monsoon to arrive in Mumbai between June 11 and June 13. “Experts in opening rates for Mumbai rains are keeping a track on when the monsoon arrives in Andaman and Nicobar, and Kerala,” the bookie said. “After the monsoon arrives, the rates would be updated depending on the rainfall the city receives,” he added.
COLA and IMD model predicts Very heavy rain for S. Kerala from 1-Jun to 4-jun. (COLA) http://ping.fm/0PsOh
Both COLA and IMD models predict a T.shower for N-E Tamilnadu including Chennai ... http://ping.fm/3IWIU
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia, Baroda 9.50am, Yestday 40-29C. Now it is sunny, passing clouds from SW, a pic http://ow.ly/i/chcE
An UAC is expected to form along Kerala coast on 1-Jun and this will pump in more rains from today evening... http://ping.fm/wNEKL
Monsoon showers along Kerala coast will get heavier from tonight .. and will last for another 4 to 5 days.. http://ping.fm/xd7yM
Monsoon advances well...heavy rains (130 mms) with hail in Kochi. Mumbai can get pre monsoon showers from Thursday...http://rajesh26.blogspot.com
You wait ages for a massive waterspout, then FOUR come at once
By Ted Thornhill, Daily Mail
Four colossal waterspouts swirled around off the coast of Sydney today amid dramatic thunderstorms. The gigantic twisters - created when tornadoes form above the sea – occurred near Avoca Beach, which lies just to the north of Australia’s capital.
The amazing natural phenomena caused a huge stir with locals, some of whom had lived in the area for over 50 years and never seen one.
Scroll down for video
Let's twist again: The huge Avoca Beach waterspout was filmed from the air passing dramatically near built-up areas
Powerful: The waterspout throws up spray as it moves across the sea
Local Tracey Boxsell, told 9 News: ‘Someone knows a man who has lived here from when he was five, and he is now in his 60s, and he has never seen anything like this.
‘It definitely doesn’t happen often. It was amazing, very spectacular. We're not used to seeing one let alone four. We were in awe of it.’ The waterspouts were filmed from a helicopter and by a motorist, who pulled over and produced incredibly dramatic footage.
Waterspouts are created when tornadoes develop over the sea.
Water sight: Residents near Avoca Beach said they hadn't seen anything like this before
Speedy: Waterspouts can move at 80mph across the water
Layers of cool air blowing over the water cause warm, moist air to sweep up from underneath and form a column of condensation. They can move as fast as 80 miles an hour, and inside winds can spiral from 60-120 miles an hour.
The 'water twisters' can last up to half an hour and posed a considerable threat to boats and aircraft - they are also known to damage coral reefs. They are most common in the Florida Keys, where there can be as many as 500 each year - though there are also around 15 reported every year off the coast of the British Isles.
Like tornadoes, they can often pick up and transport strange objects. A Canadian waterspout once carried lizards across the sea and dropped them in Montreal. In Providence, Rhode Island, a waterspout even caused fish to rain down - which the people below promptly sold. The Avoca Beach twisters came as forecasters warned of heavy rain and flash-flooding along the Sydney coast.
Monday, May 30, 2011
Climate Scam Finally Over? Kyoto Protocol's demise is official
A Greenpeace placard asks "What about Kyoto?" Its funny. We would have thought they knew of its demise. Its now official - Russia, Japan and Canada told the G8 they would not join a second round of carbon cuts under the Kyoto Protocol at United Nations talks this year. US President Barack Obama, at Thursday night's G8 dinner, also confirmed Washington would not join an updated Kyoto. Meanwhile, the European Union is unlikely to propose a deepening of the bloc’s greenhouse-gas reduction target before the next global climate summit, due to start in November, Polish Environment Minister Andrzej Kraszewski was quoted by the media as saying. The Greenpeace reaction then turned to anger and frustration by accusing world leaders of "gambling with our future".
Chennai - At last T.cells can be seen over W,S-W,N-W of Chennai ... nearest cell over W-N-W at 50 km... http://ping.fm/BLq9B
Busier weather may unfold over monsoon-hit area (kerala, Andaman, S. Tamilnadu) ... http://bit.ly/luu9BB
Busier weather may unfold over monsoon-hit area
With a strong onset of monsoon having established over Kerala and the Bay of Bengal, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of even busier weather unfolding over most of the impacted areas.
A weather warning issued on Monday morning said that isolated heavy rainfall would be unleashed over Lakshadweep and Kerala until Wednesday.
A warning issued for the same period for east and northeast India where the pre-monsoon is still playing out said that isolated thunder squalls would break out over the Northeastern states, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Orissa.
And to complete the picture, yet another of a westerly disturbances entering northwest India from across the border could spark isolated dust storms or thunderstorms over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh.
Along with this, some hostile heating of the land could also be on view over Pakistan and adjoining northwest India, helping set the north-south pressure gradient for the monsoon current to glide on.
As expected, southeast Arabian Sea has tossed up an upper air cyclonic circulation off Kerala coast, the IMD said. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting sees the system anchoring the monsoon flows and helping the cause of the progress of rains along the coast to the north.
The system could descend into lower heights and set up a low-pressure area off coastal Karnataka where the ocean water temperatures are well above 30 degree Celsius. In comparison, the seas off Kerala to just south are cooler.
But an anti-cyclone let loose by the intervening westerly system could scare away the ‘low’ from approaching India coast, and the southeasterlies associated with the anti-cyclone could drive the same
out into central Arabian Sea.
Still international models indicate the monsoon system conducting itself well during the onset phase. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University is vouching for a sustained strong band of convection holding itself up across southeast Arabian Sea and into Bay of Bengal from southwest to northeast.
Satellite picture early on Monday showed convective (rain-bearing) clouds rising over parts of east Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, south Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep, east-central and southeast Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea and central and southeast Arabian Sea.
A short-term forecast said that the western disturbance could bring with it isolated rain or thundershowers over western Himalayas and adjoining plains of northwest India until Wednesday and increase thereafter.
An extended outlook valid until Saturday spoke about the possibility of widespread rain or thundershowers over extreme south peninsula, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States and adjoining east India. Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers accompanied with isolated thunder squalls would occur over northwest India
IMD declares Monsoon over S. Kerala but the current is still weak and it'll take another 24 hrs to strengthen.. http://ping.fm/Re0MN
RT @srini_venkat: Much awaited southwest monsoon sets in over Kerala, 3 days before normal - http://bit.ly/lcEM57
Sunday, May 29, 2011
S-W Monsoon over S. Kerala and S. Tip Tamilnadu will set in on 1-Jun-2011 ... IMD will declare on 2-Jun.. http://ping.fm/lJJp8
Heavy and widespread Monsoon showers will start from night of 31-May along S.kerala coast and S. Tip Tamilnadu... http://ping.fm/cX7vH
Vertical velocity along Kerala coast and central Karnataka is on higher side... heavy showers forecast ... http://ping.fm/FKTnb
Saturday, May 28, 2011
1pm, Heavy shower activity just off coast of Kerala, UAC over W.central Arabian sea, S, N. Bay .. http://ping.fm/UCG4B
A weather making super circulation is seen over S. Bangladesh... http://bit.ly/mCfoly .... will produce more rain over N-E states, Bangladsh
Present Arabian sea UAC is predicted to become as Depression in next 3 days and move N-N-E towards Gujarat.. http://bit.ly/mCfoly
Monsoon current and Heavy showers will start from evening of 31-May along S. kerala coast ... http://ping.fm/QBB8q
Heavy afternoon T.showers will continue for S. Karnataka, S. Andhra, N. Tamilnadu till 1-Jun.. http://ping.fm/MeVIZ
Friday, May 27, 2011
"Songda" ramps up to super typhoon strength
Typhoon Songda in the northwest Pacific has ramped up wind speeds to a destructive 140 knots/hr (260 km/hr) gusting to 170 knots/hr (315 km/r) even as it skirted land and re-curved off Philippines and looked to spare Taiwan also.
The super typhoon of class-topping Category-5 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale of storm intensity is expected to pause for some breath and decelerate as it emerges back into the northwest Pacific.
Expected to undergo weakening from Friday, Songda will have been reduced to a minimal cyclone by the time it rushes past Japan to the south and weakens further in the central Pacific.
The pull exerted by Songda on tropical moisture along the equator saw further convergence of monsoon clouds over the south Arabian Sea and adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean past Maldives and even approaching Sri Lanka.
Meanwhile, global models continued to maintain a watch for the formation of a weather system in the southeast Arabian Sea close to the Kerala coast during the first 10 days of June.
Some of these models also hinted the possibility of concurrent activity near the Oman coast during this period but without significant collateral damage to the monsoonal system.
In fact, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services in its latest outlook valid for May 25 to 31 pointed to a band of enhanced convection and rainfall extending from south Arabian Sea towards equatorial Indian Ocean and Sri Lanka.
This is likely the handiwork of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave, a periodical upper air low-pressure wave, with direct impact on ground level weather and mostly associated with monsoon onsets.
The eastward propagating wave is seen as crossing into the Bay of Bengal during June 1 to 7 and entering South China Sea and the Maritime Continent (Indonesia, Malaysia etc), which is just as it should.
Global Forecasting System model of the CPC has hinted about the possibility of convective activity peaking to a high in south and southeast Arabian Sea during June 2 to 8.
Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reduced the countdown for onset of southwest monsoon over South Andaman Sea to two days.
Satellite pictures on Thursday afternoon showed convective (rain-bearing) clouds rising over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, northeast Rajasthan, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, Madhya Maharashtra, south peninsular India, east and south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and south Arabian Sea
Monsoon Advances into Maldives, Sri Lanka and S, Central Andaman
Taken from http://rajesh26.blogspot.com/Monsoon Advances into Maldives Region and Sri Lankan Western and Southern Areas, and Central Andamans .
The Southern and Central Andamans are receiving sporadic rains for the last 3 days. Port Blair has measured 71 mms, 57 mms rainfall for the last 2 days, i.e. 25th/26th May. Port Blair got 114 mms in the 24 hrs ended 5.30 pm on Thursday.
As on 26th May, Vagaries advances the SWM as a weak current into the regions of Maldives , Sri Lanka and up to Central Andamans .
Heavy rains lashed Colombo on Thursday morning.
Vagaries is following and adopting the norms set by IMD for Monsoon Advance. All monsoon advances announced by Vagaries is as per the norms followed by IMD, but are strictly the veiws of the blogger, and for further commercial uses IMD may be referred to.
MONSOON ONSET NORMS OVER KERALA:
The guidelines are followed for declaring the onset of monsoon over Kerala.
1. RAINFALL
CRITERIA:- If after 10th May, 60% of the available 14 stations enlisted, viz. Minicoy, Amini, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kasargode and Mangalore report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days, the onset over Kerala be declared on the 2nd day, provided the following criteria are also in concurrence.
2. WIND FIELD
CRITERIA:- Depth of westerlies should be maintained upto 600 hPa, in the box equator to Lat. 10ºN and Long. 55 ºE to 80ºE. The zonal wind speed over the area bounded by Lat. 5-10ºN, Long. 70-80ºE should be of the order of 15 ? 20 Kts. at 925 hPa. The source of data can be RSMC wind analysis/satellite derived winds.
3. OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION (OLR)
CRITERIA:- INSAT derived OLR value should be below 200 wm-2 in the box confined by Lat. 5-10ºN and Long. 70- 75ºE.
Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM)
Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala around 1st June. It advances northwards, usually in surges, and covers the entire country around 15th July. The NLM is the northern most limit of monsoon upto which it has advanced on any given day.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
COLA model predicts Monsoon over S.Kerala coast will start exactly on 1-Jun-2011 .. http://ping.fm/3Lu70
Today, a weak S-W current can be observed over Andaman islands ... Prefect current will set on 28/29-May .. http://ping.fm/gAYZN
Heavy T.shower forecast for S. karnataka, S. andhra, N. Tamilnadu from today till Sunday, 29-May.. http://ping.fm/OntG4
Heavy showers forecast for all kerala coast from 30-May... perfect monsoon set will be on 1-Jun-2011 ... http://ping.fm/REk30
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
SWM advancing into Sri Lanka and Maldives:
Maldives capital Male has had a windy day, with SW winds upto 40kmph today. Frequent showers during the day guaged up 32 mms of rain on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms and heavy rains have been lashing western Sri Lanka since Tuesday night.
Colombo had day long rains on Wednesday, and measured 66 mms till 5.30 pm. A thunderstorm lashed the city at 5.30 pm and 8.45 pm today.
SW winds have been sweeping the capital. Ratnapura measured 96 mms of rain till Wednesday evening. Ratmalana had 56 mms and Galle had 28 mms. All reported cities are from the west and south west of the island.
see http://rajesh26.blogspot.com
RT @Discovery_Earth: Eruption of Iceland's Grímsvötn Volcano : Photos @Discovery_News http://t.co/B4rsTMM
6pm, Lots of T.showers seen over S.central Peninsula, N-E Andhra, S. Tamilnadu... http://ping.fm/Z4O8K
Very high percentage chance of T.showers over S. Karnataka, N, N-E Tamilnadu on 27,28,29-May... http://ping.fm/Sa91g
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
RT @varun959: Heavy rain in N. Bangalore. Saw couple of trucks broken down on my way back home. Roads flooded http://bit.ly/m6iFBj
5pm, lots of T.showers scattered all over S. peninsula (tamilnadu, kerala, karnataka, AP, Orissa) ... http://ping.fm/2ashk
Pacific cyclone and monsoon onset
India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday evening said that scattered rain or thundershowers would unfold over Lakshadweep, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar Islands until Wednesday and increase thereafter.
An extended outlook valid until Saturday said that the rains would become fairly widespread over extreme south peninsula and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
This clearly is thought to be a clear indicator of the approaching onset of southwest monsoon, being facilitated by a raging tropical cyclone, Songda, in the northwest Pacific. The cyclone system is part of the larger Asian monsoon system that covers the northwest Pacific, South China Sea, the Bay of Bengal, equatorial Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea.
Purely coincidental, formation of this cyclone would have some impact on the onset phase of the Indian monsoon, though seen largely beneficial in the preliminary analysis.
Songda is, however, is forecast by most models as intensifying into a super cyclone (of Category-4 strength and above) and racing away to north-northeast off the Philippines towards East China Sea and beyond.
All northwest Pacific cyclone systems tracking in east-northeast direction are considered inimical to the interests of the Indian monsoon since they would also wake away a lot of moisture with them.
The London-based Tropical Storm Risk group said that Songda might reach super cyclone status by Saturday.
This would mean that once the onset of monsoon over India's southwest coast is facilitated, Songda would divert moisture across the Bay of Bengal into Southeast Asia and pull the same towards itself.
In the process, the onset of monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Sri Lanka might take place one after the other. The normal timeline for the Andaman Sea onset if May 15 to 20.
Some other models, including Roundy-Albany and the Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau, still see the possibility of a separate system developing in the Arabian Sea and clambering up north towards Mumbai-Gujarat region.
This is expected to happen during the first week of June, these models indicated, after the monsoon has set in over the Kerala coast.
Meanwhile, updated forecasts from both the International Research Institute (IRI) at Columbia University and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) seemed to indicate a largely normal monsoon for the country during the impending season.
LA NINA OUTLOOK
Interestingly, the IRI has joined a group of Japanese researchers at the Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change in maintaining a watch for the possibility of a return of La Nina conditions in the equatorial east Pacific.
The IRI said in its latest update that the moderate to strong La Nina conditions observed between mid-August 2010 and early February 2011 has weakened during March and April, and dissipated to “neutral” conditions as of mid-May 2011.
For the May-July season currently in progress, it assessed that there is an approximately a 24 per cent probability for the equatorial east Pacific to return to La Nina conditions and a 63 per cent probability for remaining in neutral conditions.
LOW PROBABILITY
There is only a low (13 per cent) probability for the development of El Nino conditions, which are not considered ideal for the Indian monsoon
Monsoon Watch - 8
Taken from http://rajesh26.blogspot.com/
Cross Equatorial Flow has picked up considerably in the Arabian Sea. Winds over 30-35 knts are seen gushing Northwards off the Somali Coast.
Today's SST map is reproduced here to show the Sea temperature falling along the Somali coast. It is presently around 26c. Now, this difference with the Central Arabian Sea plays a key role in cloud formations in the Central Arabian Seas. The SST along the Somali coast will rapidly fall to around 18/20c in the next 15 days.
But the current fall is sufficient to help form Monsoon clouds off the Maldives. Cloud formation near Maldives is gathering, and in next 24 hrs, wind speed along the Maldives coast is estimated at 40 mph as per the country's Met Dept.
The ITCZ has moved up a bit and is now around the 3N region south of India, and in the 5N region in the Bay sector.
SWM should set in over the Maldives within next 36 hrs, that is by the 25th/26th May. Further advance into the Sri Lanka coast is possible around 26th/27th.
The Seasonal Low seems to have got punctured. With the M3 creating an undesirable situation, we see today's pressure at 1000 mb. Not enough to create a gradient to pull up SW winds into the mainland. The day temperatures on the SubContinent Northern plains have dropped since Saturday, and restricted the day's highs to around 40c. Across in Pakistan' Sindh region, the core for the formation of the low, the highest was 47c on Monday.
M3 HAS become the "kill joy" we had NOT hoped for !
M4 is seen on the horizon, and will be into Pak/India Northern regions from 26th May. Rainfall increasing into Nepal from 27th May.
The Bay sector has been unusually weak. Its lack of systems could be attributed to M3. Strong westerly currents prevent the formation of lows to move into the bay and towards the Indian mainland. They divert the forming currents.
As SW winds should pick up speed in the next 2 days, SWM "in situ", could advance into the bay Islands as a weak current on the 26th of May.
Better before the M4 reaches the region to spoil another "party".
Conclusion: SWM advancing into Maldives by 25th (late by 5 days) and Sri Lanka by the 26th of May (late by 2 days). Similarly, SWM moving into Bay Islands by the 26th of May.(Late by 5 days).
Advance into Kerala around expected date , 3rd/4th June. But, further advance needs monitoring. Formation of a system in the Arabian Sea possible in the first week of June.
SWM seen advancing into Maldives in next 36 hrs and Sri Lanka next 48 hrs...conditions getting favourable for Bay Islands as a weak current...more details here.
Monday, May 23, 2011
3:30pm, Lots of T.showers breaking out over Central and N. Andhra, S. Karnataka, N. Madhyapradesh .. http://ping.fm/6b18c
Heavy T.showers possible for S. Karnataka, S. Andhra, Central, N. Tamilnadu from today till 30-May ... http://ping.fm/EByhP
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Monsoon Clouds seen gathering around Maldives...should approach Islands and Sri Lanka in 3/4 days... more information
Weak Monsoon current for S.tip Kerala and Tamilnadu, and Srilanka from 27-May ... http://ping.fm/wQui1
Run-up to monsoon onset to light up after May 25
Global models indicate a burst of southwesterly would sweep into Bay of Bengal around May 27, the fringes to the far east of which could also whip up a tropical cyclone in the northwest Pacific.
The European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts even as the westward-moving cyclone hits the Philippines archipelago and takes a rebound to the east-northeast, it would also facilitate the onset of southwest monsoon over the Kerala coast.
This would be preceded by the onset of monsoon over the northeast of India and the initiation of a low-pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal. Thus, the onset would likely have been accomplished in near-copybook style.
No possibility of a near-sea rogue weather system that could usurp the onset phase is still being forecast; instead the ‘pull' of the brewing northwest Pacific cyclone can only help boost its prospects and expedite the onset.
According to Dr Paul Roundy, renowned tracker of ocean weather systems, there is a possibility that the Gujarat-Mumbai coast might just witness some enhanced activity in the early phase of the onset.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction suggests the formation of the offshore vortex in the run up to the onset with maximum convection being set off over the Lakshadweep in southeast Arabian Sea.
Meanwhile, an expansive pre-monsoon phase activity on show in east India and the northeast as tremendous moisture transport is being facilitated from nearby Bay of Bengal.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) weather update on Friday said that fairly widespread rainfall was reported from West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.
It was scattered over Bihar and isolated over the western Himalayan region, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
On Thursday, heat wave conditions were prevailing over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha. The highest maximum temperature of 47.4°C was recorded at Pilani in Rajasthan.
Mainly dry weather has been forecast over northwest, central and adjoining east India until Wednesday. A rise in maximum temperatures by 2 to 4 deg Celsius is likely over northwest and adjoining central India during this period
Saturday, May 21, 2011
4pm, Showers over S-W Kashmir, W. UP, E. Jharkand, central Bengal, S. N-E states .. http://ping.fm/U9Ypl
RT @akshaydeoras: The dangerous cell having cloud tops over 14km is now South of New Delhi Airport http://fb.me/11etygOBS
Friday, May 20, 2011
Meanwhile the morning's cloud mass continue to move in S-W direction, now over central Andhra coast ... http://ping.fm/tFLpS
Latest wind sat. shows Monsoon winds have entered into S. Bay and almost over Andaman islands .. http://ping.fm/vT6Bp
Will this T.cell and its cloud mass continue to travel S-W along coast and reach S. Andhra coast or Chennai ?? .. http://ping.fm/3Hvhq
12pm, Early morning (6:30am) huge T.cell and cloud mass over Coastal central Orissa is travelling S-W and active.. http://ping.fm/eVKSS
6:30am, Early hour T.showers over S, S-W Andhra and Central, N, coastal Orissa .. http://ping.fm/QH0F4
A circulation over N-E Orissa, S. Bengal and Jharkand is keeping that ZONE extremely active .. http://ping.fm/baLq1
Thursday, May 19, 2011
6:30am, Super T.showers over Central, S. gangetic Bengal and over S. Bangladesh ... http://ping.fm/xaMZ3
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
11am, some early T.showers seen over N-E Bihar, N Bengal, Lakshadweep and over S-W coastal karnataka .. http://ping.fm/pWeQc
Mercury rising as heat wave prevails in North-West
The mercury level has been seeking new highs in the central and northwest India as heating of the regions sustained from over the weekend.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Tuesday afternoon said that heat wave conditions have been prevailing over parts of Rajasthan, south Uttar Pradesh and north Madhya Pradesh and isolated pockets of Punjab and Haryana.
But the highest maximum temperature of 46.8 deg Celsius was recorded elsewhere, at Khajuraho in Madhya Pradesh, as the core heat expanded its foot-print east-southeast.
A weather warning from IMD said that heat wave conditions would continue to hold over parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh during this period.
Meanwhile, it maintained the watch for a fresh western disturbance crossing over the border affecting the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of northwest India from Thursday onwards.
An extended outlook until Sunday (May 22) said that scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of northwest India.
A seasonal upper air trough runs from Punjab to Mizoram across Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand with an embedded upper air cyclonic circulation over West Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood.
A weather warning valid for the region said that isolated thunder squalls would occur over Jharkhand and West Bengal and Sikkim until Friday.
Another upper air cyclonic circulation has sprung up over southeast Arabian Sea in lower levels. It is seen steering the moisture laden winds to precipitate rain over the Kerala coast over the next few days.
Satellite cloud imagery on Tuesday morning showed convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of east-central Bay of Bengal, west Assam and Meghalaya.
Some tweets about Mumbai weather on 17-May-2011
| | prashantmachhar sweating at 5 am. #Mumbai needs rain. Tue, 17 May 2011 23:40:23 from Power Twitter reply view | |
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| | adilkuwait91 And yeah...Kuwait, thank for the amazing weather and rain...I was really missing Mumbai anyway...!! Tue, 17 May 2011 20:44:38 from Twitter for iPhone reply view | |
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| | SekaiRailNews BEST, rlys protect indicators from rain - Hindustan Times: “The new LED bulbs are water-proof, so the chances of... http://bit.ly/mdtaK1 Tue, 17 May 2011 19:58:32 from twitterfeed reply view | |
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| | Mumbairain Mumbai Rain: The Western Disturbance would affect Western Himalayan region and adjoining http://goo.gl/fb/dGIVC Tue, 17 May 2011 18:24:07 from Google reply view | |
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| | MUNMEETis_legit i want it to rain in Mumbai already. Tue, 17 May 2011 17:13:25 from Mobile Web reply view | |
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| | Mumbairain Mumbai Rain: The Western Disturbance would affect Western Himalayan region and adjoining http://goo.gl/fb/mBoEE Tue, 17 May 2011 16:36:20 from Google reply view | |
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| | khus_iran @DuttaLara wher r u??? Whers it rainin??I so want it to rain here in mumbai!!!! Tue, 17 May 2011 15:34:06 from Twitter for BlackBerry® reply view | |
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| | sarguroh_naeem @DuttaLara where???? yest dere were rain drops over her in kalina (mumbai) Tue, 17 May 2011 15:10:35 from web reply view | |
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| | anujsingh21 climate here in mumbai is changing rain time is on Tue, 17 May 2011 10:35:29 from web reply view | |
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| | VickneshRai RT @mtvindia: Mumbai rain in May is as much of a misfit as Sonam Kapoor at Cannes. Tue, 17 May 2011 10:14:55 from web reply view | |
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| | msthtsme SOS mumbai needs rain, else the sweat would flood the city!!! Tue, 17 May 2011 10:10:11 from Twitter for BlackBerry® reply view | |
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| | KESHLUVZSHAHID RT @mtvindia: Mumbai rain in May is as much of a misfit as Sonam Kapoor at Cannes. Tue, 17 May 2011 09:59:00 from web reply view | |
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| | PankajBMenon I bring rain!! When I left #mumbai it was raining and now when I reached #kerela its raining!! http://yfrog.com/h0inrbij Tue, 17 May 2011 09:45:37 from Twitter for BlackBerry® reply view | |
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| | vyasdhruvin RT @mtvindia: Mumbai rain in May is as much of a misfit as Sonam Kapoor at Cannes. Tue, 17 May 2011 09:32:54 from web reply view | |
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| | PapaSmurf1902 DTN Asia: DTN Asia: Rain Commodities sees U.S. plant operational by Dec-2012: MUMBAI (Reuters) - Rain Commoditie... http://bit.ly/kUTogX Tue, 17 May 2011 09:32:44 from twitterfeed reply view | |
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| | DTNAsia DTN Asia: Rain Commodities sees U.S. plant operational by Dec-2012: MUMBAI (Reuters) - Rain Commodities Ltd has ... http://bit.ly/mGfzTr Tue, 17 May 2011 09:31:35 from twitterfeed reply view | |
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| | pprabirbhatt @Ayeshatakia courtesy : yesterday's rain in mumbai Tue, 17 May 2011 09:11:14 from web reply view | |
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| | nileshraut1 WAITING FOR HEAVY RAIN ITS VERY HOT IN MUMBAI Tue, 17 May 2011 07:46:10 from web reply view | |
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| | Rahul_jr Rain chaiye.. RT@sachinshan: Cloudy, muggy and overcast in Mumbai 2nd day running. Humidity at its worst. A spell of rain Tue, 17 May 2011 07:08:41 from Gravity reply view | |
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| | aarudra91 One way or another Mumbai will get its water. If it's not the rain, it will be our sweat. Tue, 17 May 2011 07:02:30 from Twitter for BlackBerry® reply view | |
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| | Shadilated RT @mtvindia: Mumbai rain in May is as much of a misfit as Sonam Kapoor at Cannes. Tue, 17 May 2011 06:24:39 from web reply view | |
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| | sachinshan Cloudy, muggy and overcast in Mumbai 2nd day running. Humidity at its worst. A spell of rain should set it right. Tue, 17 May 2011 04:35:11 from ÜberSocial reply view | |
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| | sachin_singhal It seems it will rain today in mumbai.. Tue, 17 May 2011 04:19:37 from Twitter for Android reply view | |
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