The Busan, South Korea-based APEC Climate Centre has said in updated forecast on Monday that India might witness ‘enhanced rains' during May-June-July.
This was slightly at variance with some other global models that saw a weaker start to the southwest monsoon, only to be followed by a burst mid-season till the end.
SOME DEFICIENCIES
In fact, the APEC centre saw some deficiencies in July, especially over central and east-central India and the northwest. The outlook for August and September was not available on Monday.
The forecast said that the east Asian coast and Indonesia will receive less rainfall than normal. On the other hand, enhanced precipitation is expected over Indochina and the Philippines, apart from India.
Meanwhile, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook on Monday evening said that the scattered rain or thundershowers over east, northeast and south peninsular India would continue until the month-end.
DRY WEATHER
Mainly dry weather would prevail over northwest and adjoining west and central India during this period, with western disturbances staying away.
A satellite picture in the afternoon indicated the presence of convective (rain-driving) clouds over extreme peninsular India, south Arabian Sea, the Comorin area and south and central Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.
A short-term outlook valid until Thursday said that the fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would sustain over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu.
It would be scattered over Lakshadweep, interior Karnataka and Andaman and Nicobar Islands while being isolated over coastal Andhra Pradesh.
CAUSATIVE TROUGH
As has been the case, the causative system for this weather would be a trough that originates from upcountry and extends down to the south.
On Monday, the IMD located this weather-making trough extending from a cyclonic circulation over southeast Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh and running down through Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.
It consummated in another upper air cyclonic circulation over south Tamil Nadu.
Global models as well as the IMD expect this circulation to emerge into the adjoining Bay of Bengal and drive east-northeast towards central Bay. Towards the east, fairly widespread rain or thundershowers are expected unfold over east and northeast India until Tuesday.
MERCURY TRENDS
On Sunday, the highest maximum temperature of 43.5 deg Celsius was recorded at Deesa in Gujarat. A rise in maximum temperatures by 1 to 2 deg Celsius has been indicated for northwest and adjoining central India.
A weather warning said that isolated thunder squalls would occur over Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States until Tuesday. The rollout of the rough weather here would be overseen by two upper air circulations over Assam and neighbourhood and southeast Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood, the IMD said.
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