The IMD finally released their monsoon forecast, after dithering for some time. Speaking to CNBC-TV18's Karan Thapar, Ajit Tyagi, Director General of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), said this year the forecast in quantitative terms is of 98%, which falls in the normal category.
"We are confident within the model areas of plus/minus 5%. In extreme cases to be below normal category, which is between 90 and 96%—to be preciously the 93%, if we minus 5% from the 98%," he said raising hopes of higher farm output that could help the government tame high food prices."
As per the latest data from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, the La Niña, which brought above normal rainfall to India last year, has run its course with the central Pacific returning to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions as reflected by the Nino 3.4 Index being 0.4 C deg. Since January this year, due to the La Niña effect, daytime maxima have been too low for ‘monsoon comfort’ since sustained heating of the northwest region is crucial to set up the keenly watched ‘heat low’ to build. The heat low builds due to sustained heating of northwest India, adjoining Pakistan and the Arabia desert.
It is these conditions what posed a dilemma for IMD in their forecast of the monsoon and they dithered finalizing it until it became clear that we have returned to ENSO neutral conditions by mid-April, which can reduce rainfall. in the country. We can now hope that daytime maxima returns to normal fully in May to establish the south-westerly monsoon wind regime before heavy monsoon rains start over western India. Unlike other low-pressure areas, the ‘heat low’ is topped up by clear, cloud-free skies due to special reasons associated with the geography.
We have already published our monsoon update as well as our thoughts on La Niña if you want to take a look!!:
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