Thursday, March 10, 2011

‘Heating' footprint growing from West to East

Maximum surface heating is tending to grow its footprint from western India to central and east-central India in phases over the next few days.
Minimum temperatures were below normal by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over isolated pockets of central, east and south peninsular India during the last 24 hours ending Wednesday morning.
The lowest minimum of 8.6 deg Celsius was recorded at Adampur in Punjab during this period. The minima were above normal by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over parts of Maharashtra and isolated pockets of north Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, west Madhya Pradesh, Assam and Gujarat.
Lack of intense western disturbance activity and cloudless skies would help both maximum and minimum temperatures to inch up.
The prevailing feeble western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir and neighbourhood is in the process of moving further east and exiting the country.
There is no forecast of any big western disturbance activity in the short-to-medium term to put any meaningful cap on surface heating.
Meanwhile, isolated light rain or snowfall has been reported from Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh as the feeble westerly toyed with the fringes of the hills of northwest India.
Isolated rainfall has occurred also over Haryana and north Rajasthan in the adjoining plains and Sikkim, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh in east and northeast India.
Satellite cloud imagery on Wednesday afternoon showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of east Jammu and Kashmir, southeast Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.
The clouding in the Bay and the Andaman Sea is attributed to a prevailing easterly wave affecting the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
The wave will probably throw up an upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Bay of Bengal by Friday, the IMD said.
Some of the global models said that a rain wave piloted by the circulation would descend over southeastern Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala during the weekend.
The resulting rains could last for a couple of days, these models suggested.
Meanwhile, a short-term forecast by the IMD said that isolated rain or snowfall would occur over western Himalayan region until Friday morning

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