Thursday, March 31, 2011

Foul weather forecast for East India until tomorrow

A weather warning issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) this (Thursday) morning said that isolated thunder squalls would occur over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Sikkim until tomorrow.
This would be the expected outcome as the previous day’s upper air cyclonic circulation over Bihar and adjoining Jharkhand has metamorphosed into an upper air trough extending from Bihar to northwest Bay of Bengal.

This would allow moisture-laden southeasterly winds to blow inland from the adjacent Bay of Bengal waters to fuel convective activity.

Meanwhile an IMD update of weather until Wednesday evening said that scattered rainfall has occurred over east Uttar Pradesh and isolated over West Bengal, Sikkim, Mizoram, Tripura and Meghalaya.
Maximum temperatures have risen above normal by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over west Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Marathawada. They were below normal by 3 to 5 deg Celsius over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and the Northeastern States while being near normal over the rest of the country.
Satellite pictures early on Thursday morning showed the presence of convective clouds over parts of south Andaman Sea. A fresh western disturbance would affect the western Himalayan region from tomorrow (Friday) onwards.

Isolated rain or snow has been forecast over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand until Friday and may increase thereafter. Isolated dust storms or thunderstorms would occur over Rajasthan during this period.

Global models said that the westerly system would linger over the region during the week-end and late into the next, dictating weather not just over the northwest but also to the east in phases.
Meanwhile, the low-pressure area over south Andaman Sea has weakened into an upper air cyclonic circulation overnight on Thursday morning and lies over south Andaman Sea.
A short-term outlook said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States and scattered over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. It would be isolated over Bihar, Jharkhand, north Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal and Orissa.
Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and isolated over Kerala and Lakshadweep. Extended outlook until Tuesday, April 5, said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States.
Scattered rain or snowfall would occur over western Himalayan region and isolated dust storm or thunderstorms over the plains of northwest India.

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