The week-end may signal the unravelling of fresh but significant weather events even as Assam and neighbourhood could sustain the melting pot status with intense convective activity and unprecedentedly heavy and violently localised precipitation.
A weather warning issued by India Meteorological Department (IMD) this (Wednesday) morning said that ongoing isolated heavy rainfall could persist over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya until Friday morning.
An IMD outlook has also mounted a watch for a fresh western disturbance over the western Himalayas from Saturday.
Against the background of the huge canvas presented by the country’s geography, this will be matched by the return of heat wave conditions to central India and the build-up of an untimely low-pressure area in southeast Bay of Bengal almost simultaneously.
On Tuesday, maximum temperatures rose by 4 to 5 deg Celsius over Delhi and 2 to 3 deg Celsius over many parts of Haryana and some parts of Punjab and north Rajasthan. They were above normal by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over some parts of Punjab,
Haryana, north Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and interior Orissa. But the highest maximum temperature of 40.5 deg Celsius was recorded at Gulbarga in Karnataka.
Thus, there have not been oppressively hot conditions reported from anywhere in the country on a day when isolated rains broke out over Assam, Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
But maximum and minimum temperatures may rise by 2 to 4 deg Celsius over west and central India before evolving into full-scale heat wave conditions.
Satellite pictures early this (Wednesday) morning showed the presence of convective clouds over parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and south Andaman Sea. The weather-maker upper air cyclonic circulation over Assam and neighbourhood persisted in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
The endurance power of the system has broken open a north-to-south upper air trough from Bihar to north coastal Andhra Pradesh, exposing this region also to some volatile weather. An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Kerala and neighbourhood in lower levels.
Meanwhile, an easterly wave has started affecting the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The activity is expected to peak in due course to culminate in the tossing up of a low-pressure area.
Global tracking models have initially given a thumbs-down to the building ‘low,’ which they expected to keep tracking north-northwest to east-central Bay.
While doing so, it would also have just strayed into relatively cooler waters, which would slow it down, these models seemed to suggest on Tuesday evening. Some rains are there for the asking, but most of which could fall down over western Thailand and adjoining southwest Myanmar.
A short-term forecast by the IMD said that scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States and Kerala until Saturday. Scattered rain or thundershowers may break over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands until Thursday morning and increase thereafter.
Extended forecasts valid until Monday (March 28) said that scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States and Kerala. Heat wave conditions would develop over parts of south Rajasthan, Gujarat and Konkan
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