Sunday, February 20, 2011

Are Weather Extremities Increasing? Scientific consensus swings to say they don't





The idea that climate extremes are supposed to get more frequent and in intensity is one of the most omni-present manifestations of the climate doomsday religion.

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project is the latest attempt by the climatologist research fraternity to seek an answer to this question whether weather extremities are on the rise. The project by using super-computers generated a dataset of global atmospheric circulation from 1871 to the present. As the extract of the Wall Street Journal in its article, The Weather Isn’t Getting Weirder  illustrates, the project’s initial findings, published last month, show no evidence of an intensifying weather trend:
“In the climate models, the extremes get more extreme as we move into a doubled CO2 world in 100 years", atmospheric scientist Gilbert Compo, one of the researchers on the project, tells me from his office at the University of Colorado, Boulder. “So we were surprised that none of the three major indices of climate variability that we used show a trend of increased circulation going back to 1871.” In other words, researchers have yet to find evidence of more-extreme weather patterns over the period, contrary to what the models predict. “There’s no data-driven answer yet to the question of how human activity has affected extreme weather,” adds Roger Pielke Jr., another University of Colorado climate researcher."

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