The depression over the Gulf of Thailand has moved west-northwestwards and emerged as a low-pressure area over South Andaman Sea on Tuesday, an India Meteorological Department (IMD0 update said.
This represents a weakening of the system while crossing the territorial waters and the land feature of Southern Thailand but will soon regain depression status – as early as on Wednesday, the IMD said.
INTENSIFICATION LIKELY
From here, it is a long way off to the projected landfall by the weekend along the Tamil Nadu coast, which gives the space and time to intensify further into a cyclonic storm.
According to the Indian Ocean Forecasting System (Indofos) of the India National Centre for Ocean Information Services (Incois) based in Hyderabad, the coastal waters along Tamil Nadu and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal are very warm. This will allow convection to build around the brewing storm, which would become well organised over Southwest Bay of Bengal just ahead of the landfall, a numerical weather prediction by the Thailand Meteorological Department said.
The Indofos has been suggesting the Puducherry-Chennai belt for a landfall on Sunday/early Monday than the Chennai-South Coastal Andhra Pradesh belt just to the north.
According to various forecast models, the storm could get declared as a tropical cyclone by Thursday with the moniker, ‘Jal', according to the naming protocol for the Bay of Bengal basin (and contributed by India).
The US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has upgraded as ‘fair' the potential for development of a tropical storm in the region during the next 24 hours.
The JTWC traced the causative area of convection 435 km north-northwest of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Tuesday morning.
The low vertical wind shear (sudden change in wind direction with height which kills storms), the window effect on the top, persisting convection and falling barometric pressure (lower the pressure, stronger the winds) aid intensification, the forecast said.
A weather warning issued by the IMD said that heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at a few places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next two days.
Strong winds with speeds reaching 35 to 45 km an hr are likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal. Fishermen have been advised to exercise caution while venturing into the sea.
Meanwhile, an update on weather for the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning said that fairly widespread rainfall was received over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and North Tamil Nadu.
It was scattered over Assam, Jharkhand, South interior Karnataka, Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
The Insat cloud imagery showed the presence of convective clouds over parts of West-central and Southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andhra Pradesh.
The upper air cyclonic circulation over Rayalaseema and adjoining areas of North Tamil Nadu persisted.
Two-day outlook from the Meteorological and Oceanographic Satellite Data Archival Centre (Mosdac) at the Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad (under Indian Space Research Organisation), saw rains building up over Central Peninsula.
The Mosdac outlook said that scattered to widespread wet weather may establish over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka during this period.
WIDESPREAD RAIN
An IMD forecast until Friday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It would be fairly widespread over Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
Scattered rain or thundershowers are likely over Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Orissa and Chhattisgarh on Wednesday. Scattered rain or thundershowers have been forecast over the Northeastern States.
Extended forecast valid until Sunday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rainfall activity over Andaman and Nicobar Islands. This is the time when meaningful rains would unfold over South Peninsular India as well.
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