Tuesday, October 19, 2010

pessimistic about NEM 2010 rainfall


Some analysts may prefer WIND analysis to locate SUB TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/TROUGH LINES etc. This will many a time help to guide to the onset / spread or existence / or withdrawal of wind regime. As a result it may be pointed out that... [1] SWM winds are active over atleast 15 degree parallel and the strength is felt upto 4 to 5 km aloft. Upper level Easterly Jet is strong [>30mps] near tropopause and above. [2] The traditional High pressure hovering over west and adjoining central India is just creeping up. [3] Even though western Pacific is active up to Indonesia [evidence 'MEGI' etc] Bay is NOT so active during SWM 2010. [4] LA NINA effect will bring cold current into western Pacific. with this 'roughly' one can estimate the arrival of NEM and its activity.

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