Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Reviving monsoon to hit west coast, North-East

The South-West monsoon is expected to revive over the next two days, ending a hiatus after seasonal rains reached south Gujarat, southern parts of central India and the northeast by June 18.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh.

Widespread rain
Heavy rainfall would occur over Nagaland, Manipur Mizoram, Tripura, Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka during the next two days.
Extended forecasts until Friday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Kerala, Lakshadweep, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Orissa.
They would be scattered over central, the rest of east and peninsular India, the IMD added. Widespread rainfall is likely over the Northeastern States.
Despite the reasonably strong revival over the west coast and the northeast, the monsoon is expected to run up a cumulative lag of eight to 10 days by the month-end. It would barely have made it into northwest India by then, Dr Akhilesh Gupta, operational forecaster and Advisor to the Ministry of Science and Technology, told Business Line on Monday.
He had, however, refused to hazard a guess on the progress of the monsoon into early July, but the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction sees west Rajasthan alone not covered by the rains by July 8.
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, there would be a fresh wave of rains form the south from July 1, up to which forecasts were available.

Peninsular trough
The whole peninsula is forecast to be brought under the cover of a trough, which indicates the possibility of fairly widespread rainfall over the region.
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services sees the revived monsoon covering the entire peninsula, central and east-central India during the week ending June 28
On a scale of one to three (high, moderate, weak), the CPC assessed as ‘high' the probability of this actually panning out. For the following week (June 29-July 5), the rains would be concentrated over north and northeast India, the CPC said. Parts of the peninsula, including Rayalaseema and eastern Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and West Bengal may also share the spoils during this period.
An IMD outlook suggested that an upper air cyclonic circulation may form over west-central and adjoining coastal areas of north Andhra Pradesh and south Orissa.
The system may go on to become a crucial low-pressure area over west-central and adjoining Bay of Bengal by Thursday. The system would head westward over land and according to Dr Akhilesh Gupta, associated moisture-laden easterlies may loosely converge with flows from a prevailing western disturbance.
This might set off rains in parts of east India and go on to set up clouds over further northwest, bringing some relief from the severe heat wave conditions over parts of north-west India. The IMD expected that maximum temperatures may fall by 2-3 deg Celsius over northwest and adjoining central India during next three days.
The western disturbance, on its part, is forecast to cause some isolated rain or thundershowers over Jammu and Kashmir during the next 24 hours, before scaling up thereafter.
Isolated rain or thundershowers may also occur over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand. Isolated dust storm or thunderstorms have been forecast over the plains of northwest India during this period.

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