The lull in the flows over the Arabian Sea would have repercussions for the Bay of Bengal as well, delaying the formation of a suitably endowed ‘low' to turn around things from that end.
The ‘twin-engine' scenario wherein the monsoon catapults itself into active status powered by ‘low's on either side of the peninsula, may not unfold until June 25, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting.
A western disturbance system is tipped to cross into northwest India around that time. It would dig deep into the Arabian Sea and the Bay to activate the ‘low's. Ahead of this, the monsoon flows are shown to resume in full strength from June 22 and peak by June 25, setting the ground for system generation.
Source - Business Line - June 16
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