Japanese researchers have maintained the outlook for the prevailing La Nina to peak over the next few months and last into early 2012 even as peer models from around the globe are less assertive.
The monsoon-friendly event might be long-lasting and persist till early 2012, the latest update from the Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC), an affiliate of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, said.
The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services and the Australian Bureau for Meteorology have stopped short of taking a call beyond the northern hemisphere spring for La Nina to continue.
Associated with this strong La Nina event, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe is expected to look down during the 2010-11 winter.
But South-East North America may experience warmer-than-normal winter. Parts of North-East Asia (including Japan) also might have warmer-than-normal winter.
Above-normal precipitation is likely over Australia, South Africa, North-East Brazil and South Asian countries, the RIGC said in its outlook.
WARM ANOMALY
December, January and February could witness cooler-than-normal climes in India except West Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir and the northeastern States where temperatures could rise to slightly above normal.
The warmth is attributed to a cascading impact from across the border, with West Asia, Pakistan and Afghanistan expected to witness warmer than normal winter.
The RIGC also supported the outlook for possibility of above-normal summer showers for southern peninsula early next year. A similar trend could be evident to a lesser extent over parts of East and West India.
Meanwhile, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) weather update for the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning said mainly dry weather prevailed over the country except scattered rain over Tamil Nadu.
The causative upper air cyclonic circulation persisted over South Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood.
Dry but cool northwesterly winds are prevailing over North-West and Central India. Cloud-free skies have caused minimum temperatures to fall by 2 to 3 degree Celsius over many parts of Central and East India.
Actual minimum temperatures recorded ranged between 4 to 8 degree Celsius over many parts of North-West and Central India.
The lowest recorded minimum temperature in the plains of North-West India during this period was 3 degree Celsius at Narnaul (Haryana).
Forecast valid until Saturday spoke about the possibility of scattered rain or thundershowers over extreme South Peninsular India.
A feeble western disturbance is expected to cause light precipitation over Jammu and Kashmir from Wednesday onwards.
Mainly dry weather would prevail over plains of North-West, West, Central and East India.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts saw the possibility of accentuation of a trough from the seas to the south of Sri Lanka from Saturday onwards.
It is shown as propagating itself a little to the north to impact Sri Lanka and extreme South Indian peninsula.
Scattered rains are indicated for Coastal Tamil Nadu as well as for the South-West Coast (Kerala and Karnataka) during the week ending December 22, according to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction.
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