Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Update on the S-E Bay low .. upcoming cyclone "JAL" ??

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N 100.6E, 
APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA. 
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION, 
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC), PERSISTING OVER THE MAYLAY PENINSULA. OVER THE PAST 
SEVERAL HOURS, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HAT YAI INTERNATIONAL 
(VTSS) HAVE INDICATED VARIABLE WINDS (10-15 KNOTS) OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WITH A 24 HOUR PRESSURE DECREASE OF 6 MB'S (OBSERVATION 
OF 1003 MB AT 01/16Z). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

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