update on S-E Bay Cyclone ... Tropical Cyclone now Not yet named as cyclone jal

Tropical Cyclone now Not yet named as cyclone jal
It's now a numbered system "Tropical Cyclone 05 B"
Position :: 9.3 N , 88.6 E at 5:30 am IST
Wind :: 85 kmph
Pressure :: 989 mb

JTWC warning
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TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND OVERALL
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 041520Z METOP-A IMAGE
AS WELL AS AN EARLIER 041344Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTED A MORE DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE SSMIS WIND PRODUCT ALSO
SUPPORTED 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW EXCEPT FOR THE EAST QUADRANT
DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES, AND THE SSMIS WIND DATA. TC 05B IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THIS
FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 05B
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE (TO 45 KNOTS) IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE VWS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT
A FASTER RATE AFTER TAU 24 AS VWS DECREASES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR
65 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BY TAU 96. 

JTWC tracking
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IMD warning, 2:30am IST
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The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of 4th November 2010 near lat. 8.5⁰N and long. 89.5⁰E about 900 km east of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 1200 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1300 km southeast of Visakhapatanam. It would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Chennai and Ongole by 7^th November 2010 evening/night.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from morning of 6^th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the above regions from morning of 7^th November 2010.

Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6^th November 2010. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts from the same time. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.

Squally winds speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph would also occur along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours.

Satellite shot, 5:30am - visible
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Satellite shot, 6am IST - IR
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NOGAPS model projection :: Landfall on 7-Nov over N. Tamilnadu coast
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