Update on Cyclone Jal ... Very near to Chennai & weakening

Position :: 12.8 N , 81.8 E


Major cloud mass has crossed inland.
Chennai, 2:05pm is having a lull in rain.

IMD warning, 11:30am IST
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The Severe cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ moved northwestwards and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 7th November 2010, over southwest Bay of Bengal near lat.12.00N and long. 83.00E about 420 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 320 km east-southeast of Chennai and 400 km southeast of Nellore. It would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Chennai and Nellore by today, the 7th November 2010 night.  However, latest observations indicate sign of weakening of the system. 

JTWC warning
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070900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 81.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (JAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM 
EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BANDING. MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO DECOUPLE AND IS LIMITING 
OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW REMAIN STRONG. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL 
POSITION DUE TO THE WEAKENING LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS. TC 
05B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NORTH OF 
CHENNAI WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT 
TRACKS INLAND AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
(<35 KNOTS) BY TAU 24. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE THE SYSTEM 
COULD RE-INTENSIFY IF IT RE-EMERGES IN THE NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA. 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, THEREFORE THIS 
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z 
IS 22 FEET.

JTWC projection
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Satellite, visible, 1:30pm IST
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Major cloud mass has crossed inland.