Wind :: 85 kmph
Pressure :: 989 mb
IMD warning, 5:30pm IST
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The cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 5th November 2010, near lat. 9.00N and long. 87.50E about 700 km east of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 900 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1100 km southeast of Visakhapatnam. It would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm. The system would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7th November 2010 evening/night.
Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema from morning of 7th November 2010.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. It may increase upto 120-130 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions will be very rough to high, along and off these coasts becoming phenomenal at the time of landfall.
Damage expected:
Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.
Action suggested:
Total suspension of fishing operations. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors.
The system is under constant surveillance and concerned state Govts. are being informed.
JTWC warning
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050900Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 87.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS AS IT CONSOLIDATES UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BANDING FEATURES ARE STILL SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED IN ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER, CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE STEADIED AT A 3.0/3.0 OR 45 KNOTS OVER THE PAST FEW FIX CYCLES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 050228Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTH PLACE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AS CONVECTION SHEARS WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THIS RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL WITH INDIA AFTER TAU 48, BUT NOT BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 75 KNOTS. A DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW MECHANISMS, AND A DEEP POOL OF WARM WATER WILL ALL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. AFTER LANDFALL THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE PRIOR TO EMERGING INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. THIS FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS TRENDING SOUTH OF EARLIER RUNS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 12 FEET.
JTWC tracking
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Satellite, IR, 6pm IST
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