Friday, November 12, 2010

LESS CONFIDENCE over upcoming cyclone / depression

A well-marked low-pressure area, remnant of erstwhile cyclone ‘Jal', has been holding on gamely to its perch over North-East Arabian Sea off Saurashtra and Kachchh.
The southerly-to-southeasterly winds associated with the system have helped sustain widespread to fairly widespread rain over the western parts of the country.

MOISTURE INCURSION
Moisture incursion has been taking place over Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh from the Arabian Sea, an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.
A weather update by IMD for the 24 hours ending Thursday said that widespread rainfall occurred over South Peninsular India.
Widespread rainfall was also reported from Andaman and Nicobar Islands from a persisting cyclonic circulation in the region, while it was scattered over Gujarat and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Convective clouds
Insat cloud imagery showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Saurashtra, Kachchh, North-East and South-East Arabian Sea, South-East Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.
A weather warning issued by the IMD said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep on Friday.
Isolated heavy rainfall has been forecast for Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Friday and Saturday.
Meanwhile, an extended weather outlook valid until Tuesday by the IMD said that the persisting upper air cyclonic circulation over south Andaman Sea would get a move to the west-northwest.
Under the influence of the system, a low-pressure area is likely to form over central parts of South Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood.
A few international models still maintain the outlook for the ‘low' to intensify as it tracks west-northwest from the South Bay and reach minimal cyclonic strength.

LESS CONFIDENCE
Leading them is the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services, but a notable dissenter is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
The dynamic prediction model of the Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau, too, seems to have lately scaled down its expectation of storm intensity.
An IMD weather outlook valid until Sunday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Tamil Nadu.
It would be scattered over Konkan, Goa, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would also take place over Gujarat, Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh on Friday and Saturday before relenting. Isolated rain or thundershowers has been forecast over Haryana, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh during this period.
Extended outlook until Tuesday said that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over South Peninsular India with isolated heavy falls over the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

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