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BOB 03/2010/05 Dated: 14.10.2010
Time of issue: 1130 hours IST
The depression over eastcentral and adjoining northwest and westcentral Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the14th October 2010 over the same areas near latitude 18.00N and longitude 88.50E, about 550 km east of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 430 km southeast ofGopalpur (Orissa) and 400 km south-southeast of Digha (West Bengal).
The current environmental condition and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further into a deep depression and move west-northwestward and cross Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip by 15th October 2010 evening.
Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with heavy to very falls at a few places would occur over coastal Orissa and isolated heavy to very falls over interior Orissa, coastal areas of West Bengal and north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hours.
Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph would occur along and off north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal coasts during next 48 hours.
Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts during this period. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off these coasts.
The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts are being informed accordingly.
JTWC
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 90.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 90.16E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. THE SYSTEM HAS SOME SIGNATURES OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION IN THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND HIGHEST WINDS IS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER, BUT CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN QUADRANT RATHER THAN ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME RECENT CONSOLDIATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THE CONVECTION REMAINS DIRUNAL AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S WESTERN FLANK. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA IS DRIVING 30-35 KNOT EASTERLIES OVER THE BASIN AND RAPIDLY SHEARING THE CONVECTION. A 131458Z 89HZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY VERIFY A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PEAK REPORTED WINDS AT 25 KNOTS, WHILE A 1458Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A FIELD OF 30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLIES EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST REGION OF THE SYSTEM. WESTERLIES EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A WANING WEST WIND BURST THAT HAS PEAKED OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN AND IS NOW TRANSLATING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE PACIFIC BASIN. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE BASIN ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR COUPLED WITH THE LOOSE ORGANIZATION AT THE BOUNDARY LEVEL ARE CURRENTLY OPPOSING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
Satellite shot
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