Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Rains may intensify over Delhi from Thursday

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers for parts of Northwest India, including Delhi, which will gain in intensity from Thursday.
An IMD forecast valid until Thursday said that isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers would also occur over east Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir during this period, before scaling up.
This is being attributed to the activation of a western disturbance that will deepen in due course to embed a likely low-pressure area, updated forecast by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) said on Tuesday.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers has also been forecast for East and Northeast India, the West Coast, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Andhra Pradesh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep during this period.
IMD is also launching ‘nowcasting' facility for Delhi to coincide with the Commonwealth Games and its Web site featured a link showing a relevant page in construction.

Nowcasting is a system that can predict climate conditions for a very short period — one to four hours — using data from Doppler weather radars.
Smaller events such as individual showers and thunderstorms can be forecast with reasonable accuracy by using this facility as also are features too small for a computer model to resolve.
Meanwhile, the last 24 hours ending Tuesday morning saw fairly widespread rainfall over Tamil Nadu, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
It was scattered over Kerala, Chhattisgarh, East Rajasthan, Assam, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Haryana during this period.

Satellite imagery revealed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, East Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, North Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, the Andaman Sea, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
The trough along the Southeast Coast continued to be prominent on Tuesday with a churn beginning to build over Northwest Bay of Bengal. The ECMWF has maintained its watch for a low-pressure in this basin over the next few days.
Confluence of westerlies from a prevailing western disturbance and monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal over the eastern half of Northwest India and the entire East India has helped sustain an active belt of heavy to very heavy rains over the region.

International Research Institute (IRI) of Columbia University has retained its outlook for heavy to very heavy recorded rains for Northwest India except Jammu and Kashmir and neighbourhood for six days ending Saturday.
On Tuesday, it added South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Rayalaseema to this list, apparently from the building ‘low.'
Meanwhile, IMD traced a persisting upper air cyclonic circulation over Haryana and neighbourhood.
Meteorological analysis suggests that a fresh western disturbance is likely to affect the Western Himalayan region from Friday, it said.

A warning valid for Wednesday said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Isolated heavy rainfall has been forecast over Uttar Pradesh and Gangetic West Bengal as well during this period.
Extended forecast until Sunday spoke about the possibility of widespread rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi with isolated heavy falls.
Fairly widespread rainfall has also been forecast over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the Northeastern States, Central and adjoining North Peninsular India.

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