40% NEM 2010 RF..!!!! & ????
But I am very pessimistic about NEM 2010 rainfall. It is and it will be a "RETREATING" SW monsoon with [I hope] lesser than normal rainfall. LA NINA will be stronger during Oct Nov Dec 2010 and cold tongue will be penetrating from East central Pacific to Western Pacific to Indian Ocean and some time may bring colder than normal minimum temperature in East coast especially SCAP & N-TN.
posted by Kaneyen
What could be the weather in pollachi for the coming weeks of october?
ReplyDeleteNormally the NEM is strong and T N gets full 100% rainfall. What is the reason for your Hypothesis ? Is it because you got the SWM early ?
ReplyDeleteG Kumar
Astro Meteorology expert
www.eastrovedica.com
http://astroclimate.blogspot.com
Dear G.K,
ReplyDeleteSome analysts may prefer WIND analysis to locate SUB TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/TROUGH LINES etc. This will many a time help to guide to the onset / spread or existence / or withdrawal of wind regime. As a result it may be pointed out that
[1] SWM winds are active over atleast 15 degree parallel and the strength is felt upto 4 to 5 km aloft. Upper level Easterly Jet is strong [>30mps] near tropopause and above.
[2] The traditional High pressure hovering over west and adjoining central India is just creeping up.
[3] Even though western Pacific is active up to Indonesia [evidence 'MEGI' etc] Bay is NOT so active during SWM 2010.
[4] LA NINA effect will bring cold current into western Pacific.
with this 'roughly' one can estimate the arrival of NEM and its activity.
The met dept has been proved wrong once again. Almost all weather stations in Tamilnadu have recorded excess rainfall this NE monsoon season.
ReplyDeleteWhile one has to concede the flaw in the forecast, it may be retreated that NEM 2010 is a "retreating monsoon" which chased SWM winds gradually from North to south to establish easterly wind regime.
ReplyDelete[1] Even though western Pacific is active up to Indonesia, SST in the Bay is active very close to eastern sea shore only. It enhanced precipitations.
[2] Similarly the inland near western ghat foot hills is also warmer which attracted more rainfall.
[3] IMD has given a right forecast on NEM and that comes mainly true only.