Saturday, September 25, 2010

LA NINA & NEM 2010

La Niña strengthened during August 2010, as negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies reached at least -1oC across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean by the end of the month. Consistent with this evolution, the subsurface heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean) decreased further, reflecting the additional cooling of sub-surface waters east of the International Date Line.. Also convection was enhanced over Indonesia, while remaining suppressed over the western and central equatorial Pacific. The pattern was associated with the continuation of enhanced low-level easterly trade winds and anomalous upper-level westerly winds over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect the strengthening of La Niña.

  1. During last week the equinoctial Pacific SST have been NEGATIVE:
  2. LA NINA is expected to last during this Northern Hemisphere winter [2010-11]
  3. Though Indonesian region convective activity is expected to enhance, sleek of this convective belt into Bay is NOT predicted.
  4. There is chance that cold tongue may cross and sleek into western Pacific unto Indonesia.

Courtesy: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
20 September 2010 {update}

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