Sunday, August 29, 2010

Summarising 28th August rainfall:

Mostly around the active vortex (UAC), and vigorous in Gujarat.
Some of the heaviest falls in Gujarat, West Mah. region as on 29th. morning:
Belapur (Thane) 12.7, Roha, Mahabaleshwar 11.9, Sidhpur 8.2, Harnai 8.0, Alibag 7.0, Panvel, Soegaon - 11 each, Srirampur, Kalyan, Vaduj - 10 each, Mahad, Tala, Harnai, Mandangad, Ulhasnagar - 8 each, Alibag, Bhira, Mangaon, Pali, Mhasala, Lanja, Thane, Ambarnath - 7 each.

Now, the current UAC, may linger around the North Mah.coast/South Gujarat coast till Tuesday. With this, I see rainfall continuing around this areas till Tuesday. Heaviest falls will be in the core of the UAC. So, in a way, I feel some heaviest rains could be expected in the Saurashtra areas and North Mah.coasts, but n
orth of Mumbai.
South Gujarat shoulds get heavy rains on Monday and Tuesday.

For a brief look at the MJO situation, I directly quote from the Australian Buraeu: ""The MJO has displayed generally erratic behaviour, and has had perhaps the greatest influence on weather across southern Asia. Longer term, one would expect to see redevelopment of the MJO in the western Indian Ocean around early to mid-September. If this scenario were to play out, we would expect the increased risk of a reinvigoration of the Indian Monsoon, and increased potential for tropical cyclone development in the region".
Monsoon is in active phase as can be seen from the Indian Monsoon Index in the chart below which shows above normal activity for the next two weeks:

ECMWRF forecasts another fresh UAC forming North of Mumbai on the 1st. of September,
tracking Northwards into Saurashtra coast, and fizzling out the very next day (2nd.Sept).
IMD sees a low in the bay by the 31st. I am not too optimistic on this low, not around this date at least. Maybe a bit later, after the 4th. Sept. That's my reading of events.
I trust this Map of NCEP/GFS forecast to show the accumalated rainfall till 3rd. Sept.


  1. Correct, Navi Mumbai Belapur rained non since yesterday. Right from june-aug we are seeing only rains in Mumbai. When are rains/SWM coming to a logical end?

  2. sorry I meant non stop rains at Navi Mumbai

  3. September probability of cyclone for Maharastra/Gujarat? Already states water buffer are full.

    With september SWM continuing when will NEM start?

  4. still no signs of SWM withdrawing from Rajasthan, from where it begins.cyclone...?? not seen anything as such till now ! And, NEM can only arrive when SWM withdraws..cannot be

  5. Yesterday Navi Mumbai Belapur rained non stop, intense force of rain was like thundering waterfalls. Should be 300mm rain. With this Mumbai rain must be like 3000mm exceeding Mangalore.