The seasonal monsoon trough lying along the Himalayan foothills and extending into Balochistan in Pakistan continues to dictate weather over the contiguous northwestern regions of the two countries.
A Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) update on Thursday said the ‘seasonal low' lay over Balochistan with a trough extending southeast. This formation could have implications for weather over Rajasthan across the international border.
CLOUDING PRESENT
India Meteorological Department's (IMD) satellite pictures showed clouding over Rajasthan and adjoining plains topped up by an upper air cyclonic circulation over west Uttar Pradesh.
The PMD also signalled to the presence of a shallow westerly wave over the extreme northern parts of Pakistan. This trough could get a move to the east to cross Northwest India over the next few days.
Monsoon currents of weak to moderate intensity emerging from the Bay of Bengal and fanning west-northwest into the plains of North India continued to penetrate the upper and central parts of Pakistan.
PAK RAINS
The PMD indicated the possibility of rain or thundershowers at scattered places (with isolated heavy falls) over Punjab, including Islamabad, and the province of Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa (erstwhile Northwest Frontier Province).
Meanwhile, the offshore trough along India's Southeast Coast deepened with a fresh upper air cyclonic circulation spinning up over West-central Bay of Bengal.
WET IN JAMMU
Satellite cloud imagery showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of the Western Himalayas, the Indo-Gangetic plains, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the North-East, Central and the rest of East India and North and South Bay of Bengal.
The IMD said in an update that the 24 hours ending Thursday morning saw widespread rainfall being reported from Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Haryana, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, East Madhya Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Konkan and Goa.
A warning valid for the next two days said that heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at a few places over the Jammu Division of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand.
EAST INDIA
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, East Rajasthan and the North-East during this period.
The forecast until Sunday spoke about the possibility of widespread rain or thundershowers over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the North-East. Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, East Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, the West Coast, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
WEST COAST
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal during on Friday before losing in intensity.
But scattered rain or thundershowers have been forecast for Interior Maharashtra and Interior Karnataka during this period and an increase thereafter.
Extended forecast until Tuesday indicated that widespread rainfall may break out over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, East Rajasthan, Uttarkhand, Himachal Pradesh, the Northeastern States, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
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